Showing posts with label Palm Oil. Show all posts
Oil palm planters and investors will be happy if weather stays dry for another 2-3 weeks???
Dry spell could boost palm oil RM3,000 or more per tonne
KUALA LUMPUR: Consensus estimates for the crude palm oil (CPO) prices this year indicate that they could touch the RM3,000 per tonne level, if not higher, as industry thought leaders tracked effects of the dry spell and biodiesel demands.
Godrej International Ltd director Dorab Mistry said weather held the key for palm oil prices this year and that the lack of rainfall next week would be crucial to revising price estimates going forward.
“If the weather improves and rains come by next week, it will not alter the price outlook to June 2014,” he said when presenting his paper on the second day of the Palm and Lauric Oils Conference and Exhibition 2014.
With normal rainfall when the oil palm high cycle begun in July, prices could trade between RM2,600 to RM2,900 per tonne, he said.
However, if an El Nino developed, CPO futures would cling to RM3,000 beyond June, he added. “Production is likely to be affected from late 2014 onwards and we may be looking at RM3,500 per tonne.”
Subsequently, in that scenario, Mistry noted that Indonesia would find it difficult to implement its biodiesel mandate while biodiesel producers who had committed large volumes at current formula-based pricing might find themselves in a tight spot.
LMC International Ltd chairman Dr James Fry, who also presented a paper at the conference, estimated CPO futures to trade just above RM3,000 mid-year while the EU CPO price should reach US$1,030 if Brent Crude stayed at US$110 per barrel.
ISTA Mielke GmbH Oil World executive director Thomas Mielke forecast CPO prices to average US$970 (RM3,177) a tonne in 2014, 14% higher than last year’s average.
With a price rally going on currently, he believes there is little potential upside left from the current high levels but “prices in Rotterdam could still touch or slightly exceed US$1,000 in the next four to eight weeks if palm oil-planting regions got the required rainfall.
“Assuming rain in the coming weeks (in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand), I see a limited upside,” he said in his presentation.
Rabobank International’s forecast for the 12-month CPO average price was RM2,800 per tonne. Its projection for the second quarter of 2013 was higher at RM3,000 per tonne due to a shortage of soybean oil production in South America. It said the price was expected to dip in the second half of the year.
Global head of financial markets research Jan Lambregts told StarBiz commodity prices were generally supported by world economic events, in particular the (US Federal Reserve) quantitative easing (QE) tapering.
“If the US Fed is driven by a better economy domestically and to some extent globally, interest rates will rise and that means there is room for equities to go up. Hence commodities will be underpinned as there is reasonable global growth,” Lambregts said.
He noted that while the 12-month outlook on commodities was always based on weather conditions, his longer term outlook was very positive.
Fry said the drought would cut South-East Asia’s CPO output in the third quarter, with a further adverse impact at the end of 2014.
Mistry’s output estimate for Malaysian CPO is 19.5 million to 19.7 million tonnes for 2014, if the drought ends next week.
Meanwhile Reuters reported that palm oil futures are set to climb for a second year, driven by crop damaging dry weather and Indonesia's higher biodiesel mandate, although bumper global oilseed supplies and weak demand from key consumers could cap gains.
The next three weeks are crucial for the outlook on palm oil output, traders and analysts at a three-day industry conference in Kuala Lumpur said. If dryness continues to plague oil palm plantations in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, it would reduce yields of fresh fruit bunches.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil prices hit a 17-month top of 2,868 ringgit ($880) per tonne on Wednesday, extending gains of almost 10 percent in February - the biggest monthly rise since October 2013.
"In the event that an El Nino develops, I believe crude palm oil futures will cling to 3,000 ringgit beyond June," leading vegetable oil analyst Dorab Mistry said at the conference.
The El Nino weather pattern usually results in below-average rainfall in the main palm oil producers, cutting yields and pushing up global prices.
"Production is likely to be affected from late 2014 onwards and we may be staring at 3,500 ringgit," said Mistry, who heads the vegetable oil trading arm at India's Godrej Industries . Palm prices last exceeded this level in April 2012.
But at such high prices, demand could shift to rival edible oils of which there is ample supply, traders and analysts said.
"If palm oil gets too 'greedy', we will see more importers switching to sun, soy and canola oils," James Fry said, capping prices at 3,000 ringgit by the middle of 2014.
HIGH PRICES TO HIT DEMAND
Overseas purchases of palm oil by India, the world's top importer of vegetable oils, are set to drop 6 percent in the year to October 2014, with buyers opting for rival soybean oil as the price spread between the two narrows, traders said.
Palm oil usually trades at a discount of $100 to $150 a tonne to soybean oil, but last month's rally in Malaysian futures has tightened the spread.
Palm oil imports by China, the world's No.2 edible oil buyer, could also take a hit in the coming months as stockpiles at its major ports have risen to near record highs of around 1.2 million tonnes.
While Mistry expects Indonesia's biodiesel mandate to be a "game changer" that will keep palm oil prices relatively high for a long time, Fadhil Hassan - executive director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association - said the rally in palm prices may curb the country's use of the tropical oil for blending.
Jakarta's energy ministry has raised the minimum bio content in diesel to 10 percent, up from levels of 3-10 percent. For the power industry, the minimum has been doubled to 20 percent.
But the country is likely to use only 2 million tonnes of palm oil for blending into biodiesel in 2014, 41 percent short of its target of 3.4 million, Hassan said.
The weak demand for palm oil comes at a time when global oilseed supplies are expected to rise.
Output of rival soyoil should see a spike, with Brazil headed for a record soybean crop of 90 million tonnes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, up from 82 million a year ago. Argentina's soybean output is seen climbing to 54 million tonnes this year, compared with 49.3 million tonnes in 2013.
NEXT THREE WEEKS EYED
Several traders at the conference said the global supply and demand fundamentals could cap the rally in palm prices.
If rains come as normal and the high production cycle kicks in from July, palm can trade between 2,600 and 2,900 ringgit over July to October, Mistry said.
Benchmark prices of the tropical oil have risen almost 7 percent this year and are currently at above 2,830 ringgit.
"If it stays dry for another 2-3 weeks, oil palm will react and yields will decline in October-December this year and in the following two years," said Thomas Mielke, editor of Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World.
"Such a scenario would trigger higher-than-forecast prices." ($1 = 3.2750 Malaysian ringgit) - The Star Biz
The next three weeks are crucial for the outlook on palm oil output, traders and analysts at a three-day industry conference in Kuala Lumpur said. If dryness continues to plague oil palm plantations in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, it would reduce yields of fresh fruit bunches.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil prices hit a 17-month top of 2,868 ringgit ($880) per tonne on Wednesday, extending gains of almost 10 percent in February - the biggest monthly rise since October 2013.
"In the event that an El Nino develops, I believe crude palm oil futures will cling to 3,000 ringgit beyond June," leading vegetable oil analyst Dorab Mistry said at the conference.
The El Nino weather pattern usually results in below-average rainfall in the main palm oil producers, cutting yields and pushing up global prices.
"Production is likely to be affected from late 2014 onwards and we may be staring at 3,500 ringgit," said Mistry, who heads the vegetable oil trading arm at India's Godrej Industries . Palm prices last exceeded this level in April 2012.
But at such high prices, demand could shift to rival edible oils of which there is ample supply, traders and analysts said.
"If palm oil gets too 'greedy', we will see more importers switching to sun, soy and canola oils," James Fry said, capping prices at 3,000 ringgit by the middle of 2014.
HIGH PRICES TO HIT DEMAND
Overseas purchases of palm oil by India, the world's top importer of vegetable oils, are set to drop 6 percent in the year to October 2014, with buyers opting for rival soybean oil as the price spread between the two narrows, traders said.
Palm oil usually trades at a discount of $100 to $150 a tonne to soybean oil, but last month's rally in Malaysian futures has tightened the spread.
Palm oil imports by China, the world's No.2 edible oil buyer, could also take a hit in the coming months as stockpiles at its major ports have risen to near record highs of around 1.2 million tonnes.
While Mistry expects Indonesia's biodiesel mandate to be a "game changer" that will keep palm oil prices relatively high for a long time, Fadhil Hassan - executive director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association - said the rally in palm prices may curb the country's use of the tropical oil for blending.
Jakarta's energy ministry has raised the minimum bio content in diesel to 10 percent, up from levels of 3-10 percent. For the power industry, the minimum has been doubled to 20 percent.
But the country is likely to use only 2 million tonnes of palm oil for blending into biodiesel in 2014, 41 percent short of its target of 3.4 million, Hassan said.
The weak demand for palm oil comes at a time when global oilseed supplies are expected to rise.
Output of rival soyoil should see a spike, with Brazil headed for a record soybean crop of 90 million tonnes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, up from 82 million a year ago. Argentina's soybean output is seen climbing to 54 million tonnes this year, compared with 49.3 million tonnes in 2013.
NEXT THREE WEEKS EYED
Several traders at the conference said the global supply and demand fundamentals could cap the rally in palm prices.
If rains come as normal and the high production cycle kicks in from July, palm can trade between 2,600 and 2,900 ringgit over July to October, Mistry said.
Benchmark prices of the tropical oil have risen almost 7 percent this year and are currently at above 2,830 ringgit.
"If it stays dry for another 2-3 weeks, oil palm will react and yields will decline in October-December this year and in the following two years," said Thomas Mielke, editor of Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World.
"Such a scenario would trigger higher-than-forecast prices." ($1 = 3.2750 Malaysian ringgit) - The Star Biz
IOI Chairman foresees CPO Price hitting RM 2900 by the year end
PUTRAJAYA: IOI Corp Bhd executive chairman Tan Sri Lee Shin Cheng is positive on crude palm oil (CPO) prices and believes that the worst of the plantation cycle is over.
He foresees CPO prices hitting RM2,900 by the year-end before breaching the RM3,000 level, driven by falling inventory levels and the renewed B10 biodiesel programme, which would pick up pace by the end of 2013.
“Furthermore, the price discount between CPO prices and soybean oil is currently at about US$300 (RM930), which is at one of its highest levels,” Lee noted.
The CPO price now is at around RM2,430 per tonne.
“I believe the CPO prices would be going up. So far, I have not been wrong before. Let us see this year,” he said.
He added that inventories were coming down steadily.
“We are now also entering the low-crop period. Give that another one to two months, then you'd see things getting better. The fact is that palm oil is a vegetable oil which is a good oil. It contains no trans fatty acid,” Lee said.
Lee, Malaysia's sixth wealthiest man, never imagined he would attain what he has today. “All I wanted to do was to become a school teacher and ride a Vespa!”
Meanwhile, the Government is now pushing the B10 biodiesel programme to be implemented nationwide by June 2014. This is part of its plan to reduce high palm oil stocks and support the CPO price. As at December 2012, palm oil stocks were are at a record high of 2.63 million tonnes.
The B10 palm oil-based biodiesel comprising 10% palm oil and 90% petroleum diesel was launched in early February this year.
Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Tan Sri Bernard Dompoksaid the Government had allocated a RM300mil grant, of which RM80mil had been disbursed to oil companies and biodiesel producers to set up the infrastructure, ranging from blending facilities and tanks to oil pumps.
Dompok said B10 would take away one million tonnes a year from the national stockpile of 2.6 million tonnes.
Going back to Lee, he said IOI was aiming to go back to an oil yield of six tonnes per hectare from 4.9 as of 2012. Its oil yield has been on a downtrend in the last five years.
“We do face some labour shortage issues and there are difficulties in looking for good estate managers. We don't mind paying higher rates for local workers. We can pay piece rates.
“Plantation is all about productivity. A good estate manager and an inefficient estate manager would make a big difference in determining the profits of an estate,” Lee said.
As at June 30, 2012, IOI's total planted area stood at 158,881ha, from 158,174ha in 2011. Approximately 99% of the estates' planted area sapns over 82 estates.
About 65% of the group's oil palm plantation holdings are in Sabah and Sarawak, 29% in Peninsular Malaysia and the remaining 6% in Indonesia.
Lee considers himself a property man just as much as a planter. This is obvious not just from IOI's size, but also its property margins.
While IOI Properties was privatised in 2009, the last three financial years have seen the company's revenue base closing in on the RM1bil mark.
For the year ended June 30, 2012, the company posted a revenue of RM843mil, a 13% decrease from the RM971mil in the previous year. Operating profit dropped 12% to RM451.13mil.
When it was a listed entity, IOI Properties was one of the most profitable developers around.
IOI has property developments in Xiamen (China), Singapore and Malaysia, with the bulk of its gross development value in Singapore.
Lee said Xiamen was an exciting market which held lots of potential.
IOI plans to embark on a RM2bil property development in Xiamen this year. This would be a mixed development comprising a shopping mall, a hotel and office space, condominiums and villas.
Lee is just as excited about Singapore and Johor. IOI recently launched its properties in Clementi Avenue Singapore, which he said was very well received. The average selling price was S$1,500 (RM3,736.49) per sq ft.
Last year, IOI tendered for the parcel of land in Jalan Lempeng, off Clementi Avenue 6 in Singapore, for S$408mil (RM995mil). It is within walking distance of the Clementi Mass Rapid Transit station and the Clementi bus interchange.
“Property is all about stamina and location. The measures taken by the Singaporean government will really drive down property prices, which may not be good for the long term,” Lee said.
He is equally optimistic on property in the Iskandar Development region, and has been looking to buy pockets of land around the area. At present, IOI has some 1,416ha for property development spread out in Johor.
“Undeniably, the Iskandar region is developing. Property prices in Singapore are still extremely high. The infrastructure is now coming up in Johor.
“There is now a good relationship between the governments of Singapore and Malaysia. While you need to be extremely careful with location, I believe Johor holds a lot of potential,” he said.
On another note, IOI's new mall, IOI City Mall in Putrajaya, is on track to be completed by end-2014.
Lee said it had secured Tesco and Parkson as anchor tenants, and some 60% of the entire 1.4 million lettable area had been taken up. The rental per square feet would be going for approximately RM10 to RM12.
The Star Biz
Monday March 25, 2013
Highlighting the values of palm oil
MPOC chairman avers that palm oil is healthy and its plantations sustainable.
DRIVING to the Putrajaya Marriott Hotel was somewhat of a task for me, considering my absolute lack of navigational skills. However, it was a pleasant surprise to pull up to what appeared to be like an oasis at the end of my long travel.
Car parked and Midori Japanese Restaurant located, I sat down to aPower Lunch session with Datuk Lee Yeow Chor, the group executive director of the IOI Group of companies and chairman of the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).
As Lee ordered our lunch, our conversation flowed around how many in the Klang Valley regard IOI as a property company, when two-thirds of its business is actually focused on oil palm plantations. He shared with me that this core business won a place in his heart when he was still schooling and that he used to accompany his father to visit the plantations. Despite pursuing a legal education (at King's College London) and having practised for several years, the childhood seeds of the family business had been planted. So, in 1994, he joined IOI. He immersed himself in this career with dedication and within a few short years, was an active member of the Rubber Growers Association.
“I sat in the council before it was disbanded about eight or 10 years ago. When it was disbanded, there was a consolidation of the industry associations. It became the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) four associations became one. I was involved in it right from its formation until now.”
Not content with confining himself to local organisations and associations, and ever on a quest to learn, Lee soon found himself a part of the Young Presidents Organisation (YPO).
“It's an international body with 20,000 members globally, and there are 60 Malaysian members. The mission of the organisation is to promote leadership through education and the exchange of ideas. For the global leadership conference, we invited speakers like Tony Blair, Sir Richard Branson, etc.
“I've been a member for six years and I'll be the Malaysian chapter chair in the coming year. We have a forum... about seven or eight of us gather on a monthly basis. We share the issues that we face and also our achievements,” he said, explaining that in addition to discussing business, the YPO also emphasises the importance of personal growth and development.
Besides the YPO, Lee has also been an active participant in the Forbes Global CEO Conference which was held in Kuala Lumpur in 2011. The conference was attended by approximately 400 people from around the world, and through their invitation, Lee gave a talk and led a dialogue session on commodities and energy, with the focus on palm oil.
Staying green
Speaking of palm oil, our conversation took a turn to environmental impact and sustainability.
“One common view is that because of the biofuel pull, Malaysia and Indonesia are frantically felling forests and planting oil palm. But it's not like that. It's a long, sustaining industry that started as rubber plantations a hundred years ago, and we've converted those rubber plantations to oil palm plantations. It has a long history and it's an important foreign exchange earner for the country. Two years ago, RM80bil came from palm oil, and last year, RM70bil,” he explained.
“If you look at the statistics of forest cover, the United Kingdom has 20%, Germany 30%, while Malaysia has 55%. Malaysia is a green lung for the world,” says Lee with pride.
At the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, Malaysia made a pledge to preserve 50% of its forests. Lee informed me that currently, we're above that with 55%, and that there are many non-governmental organisations which have recognised the good effort that Malaysia has made in preserving its forests while still sustaining a bustling agricultural industry.
As for productivity and sustainability, Lee explains that this is actually a non-issue.
“One statistic is very simple. If you talk about having a limited amount of available land while the population is increasing, where is the food going to come from? The productivity of palm oil is six to 10 times higher than any other vegetable oil. Compared to soybean oil, we are eight times more productive per unit of land.
“Palm oil is from a tree crop. Once you plant it, it lasts for 25 to 30 years. Soybean and all the rest are annual crops. You have to plant and re-till the land every year. So, just by simple logic, you can imagine which is more environmentally damaging. Annually you till the land and cause erosion, and fertiliser needs to be reapplied.
“And oil palms are quite big trees. If you look at the foliage, they absorb carbon dioxide. It may not be equivalent to forest trees, but certainly better than tiny soybean plants.”
As for the by-products, Lee says that they are used productively in various ways, such as fuel to produce electricity and also to make paper, fibreboards, etc.
Healthy oil
The MPOC has been working hard to change the unfair perception that some people have about palm oil, before finding out for themselves. Lee says that in the United States especially, palm oil has actually been very readily accepted, in some markets, as a healthy alternative to soybean oil.
“Baked goods and confectionary products use fats that need to be a bit more solid. Soybean oil is a soft oil and it needs to be hydrogenated to make it more solid, and during that process, it produces trans fats.
“Palm oil is naturally semi-hard, so we don't need to hydrogenate it and that makes it very suitable in bakeries.” Trans fats have been identified to be highly unhealthy, as they have been found to raise bad cholesterol (LDL) levels, and lower good cholesterol (HDL) levels. Some states in the United States have even taken to imposing a ban on trans fats.
“There's the argument that palm oil contains a higher percentage of saturated fats than soybean oil. But recent studies show that there are several kinds of saturated fats. It's not the same as in butter, animal fats, etc. It's a different fat composition and it does not raise the LDL. In fact, it has a beneficial effect of raising the HDL.
“So actually, it's beneficial to health. Palm oil is similar in health attributes to olive oil,” he asserts.
Lee adds that for even healthier benefits, we should look at red palm oil. “It's a specialty oil. It's not so common in Malaysia, but has been exported to the United States and Europe for domestic use. The red hue comes from beta-carotene, and another very important component is tocotrienol a high-grade variant of Vitamin E.”
Red palm oil has in recent years been garnering popularity, as people are supplementing their diet with it to boost good overall health. In addition, there are focused studies (breast and prostate cancers) underway to evaluate the possible cancer-combating qualities of red palm oil.
Cooking show
Lee divulges that the MPOC has been financing several documentaries promoting healthy diets, which have aired on the Asian Food Network (AFC), CNBC and BBC. He says many people do not realise that the MPOC is involved in the production of these programmes. The MPOC wants to take a more active stance in bringing awareness of palm oil and its uses to consumers.
“When we produce the documentaries, I normally advocate that we should project our Malaysian palm oil. Some people have said that we wouldn't be taken seriously and would be seen as biased. But I think what is important is the content, then the prejudice should quickly disappear. That's why with the upcoming cooking show I have suggested, it's been agreed that we would project Malaysian palm oil and even the MPOC.
“The programme will be promoted and produced by us. Martin Yan from the United States will be the chef on the show, and the theme will be cooking using palm oil. It will be broadcast on the Asian Food Channel,” he says, with a hint of excitement.
Saturday March 23, 2013
CPO prices seen at RM2,500-RM3,200
KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) is expected to trade between RM2,500 and RM3,200 per tonne this year, said Malaysia Palm Oil Council chief executive officer Tan Sri Dr Yusof Basiron.
Presenting a paper on Market Challenges and Opportunities for Palm Oil in 2013, Yusof noted that palm oil prices were affected by temporary oversupply in production and thus a supply rationalisation was needed.
“We would need to build more tanks and ships to cater for the peak production months as well as more multi-feedstock bio-diesel plants to remove excess supply from the market. I suggest that this issue be addressed both by Malaysia and Indonesia,” he said at the Palm and Lauric Oils Conference and Exhibition 2013 here yesterday.
“Planters have to control the production to ensure a higher value on the commodity,” he added.
Yusof estimated the CPO stockpiles could decline to at least 2 million tonnes by mid-2013 as CPO production was showing a decreasing trend. He said currently, the CPO production was almost 1.5 million tonnes per month.
The country recorded the highest CPO stockpiles in December last year at 2.63 million tonnes, which then dropped to 2.58 million tonnes in January.
He highlighted several challenges faced by the palm oil industry in the global market, including the ideology threat (which meant that developing countries had to play a role to preserve their forests), scarcity of land, growth in world population and global warming.
“The world population is expected to grow from 7 billion in 2011 to 9 billion by 2043; thus food production has to meet this increasing rate. This is sufficient to exert pressure on commodities' prices,” Yusof noted.
He added that with the increase in the population, demand for oils would rise as well. According to his research, to fulfill the demand, the world will need an additional 1.48 million ha per year if the yield factor for palm oil was 4 tonnes per ha.
Yusof also highlighted that the palm oil industry had vast opportunities for future exploitation to increase revenue and the challenges faced were manageable. - The Star Biz
Wednesday March 6, 2013
Palm oil labelling will slash EU consumption, Dutch agency warns
Malaysian government official said his country will draft a new labelling strategy to reassure consumers in the EU.
AMSTERDAM: Palm oil consumption in Europe would be curbed when new rules start next year compelling food makers to label their products with the ingredient if used, the Dutch product board warned.
(In Malaysia, a government official who declined to be named said his country will draft a new labelling strategy to reassure consumers in the EU, a major importing region.
"The strategy is to differentiate ourselves from Indonesian palm oil where most of the forest clearing is happening. In Malaysia, on the other hand, we are running out of land," the official said.)
Because it is solid at room temperature, palm oil has become an irreplaceable ingredient in a variety of products from chocolate bars and spreads to biscuits, ice cream and even soap.
But a wave of negative campaigning has targeted its cultivation, especially in Indonesia and Malaysia - a natural habitat for the orangutan - where activists say rain forests have been destroyed to make room for palm oil plantations.
Frans Claassen, head of the Dutch Board for Margarine, Fats and Oils, which represents the industry, said the negative campaigns could force food producers to seek to replace palm oil, which would cut its imports and make products more expensive.
"If palm oil keeps its bad reputation some food producers could stop using palm oil," Claassen told Reuters. Since 1995 global palm oil production has tripled as food producers have used it to replace less healthy trans fats created by hydrogenation of liquid oils such as rape oil, soy oil and sunflower oil. Palm oil imports to the European Union account for 10 percent of global production, and nearly half is imported through the Netherlands.
As of December 2014, food producers will be obliged to put on labels if they use rape oil, palm oil, soyoil or any other oil that are currently all labelled as vegetable oil, and experts say it will be difficult to find a replacement for it. Mike Gordon, professor of food chemistry at the Department of Food and Nutritional Science at the University of Reading in Britain said milk butter fat could be the only alternative.
"It (milk butter fat) would probably be a bit more expensive," he said. SUSTAINABILITY Campaigners and food producers agree sustainability certificates could be a way to reassure consumers a rainforest has not been destroyed to make room for the palm oil used in a specific product. Unilever, one of the world's biggest palm oil buyers, said 100 percent of its palm oil was sustainable as of 2012.
"By 2020, we are aiming for all of our sustainability sourced palm oil to be traceable back to the plantation on which it was grown," it said in a written statement to Reuters.
It said the industry needs to step up demand for sustainable palm oil which now accounts for 15 percent of the global output, to reassure both consumers and campaigners. In Malaysia, a government official who declined to be named said his country will draft a new labelling strategy to reassure consumers in the EU, a major importing region.
"The strategy is to differentiate ourselves from Indonesian palm oil where most of the forest clearing is happening.
In Malaysia, on the other hand, we are running out of land," the official said. Hans van Trijp, professor of marketing and consumer behaviour at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, said labelling would not on its own bring any changes in consumer behaviour, but aggressive campaigns could make them more observant of labels and prone to boycotting certain ingredients.
"The information itself will not motivate consumers to change. The issue needs to be put on the agenda," he said. - Reuters
Industry experts forecast better prices for crude palm oil (CPO) this year in 2012
KUALA LUMPUR: Industry experts have different price forecasts for crude palm oil (CPO) this year, but they all seem to agree that 2012 will be a better year for the commodity than the past two years. Their forecast average prices range from RM3,100 to RM3,610 per tonne. In comparison, CPO was traded at an average of RM3,210 in 2011 and RM2,701 in 2010.
ISTA Mielke GmBH (Oil World) executive director Thomas Mielke said CPO prices would average about RM3,450 per tonne, given that the outlook for palm oil output was going to be moderate this year.
“We expect Malaysia will increase its CPO output by only about 0.4 million tonnes to 19.3 million tonnes, while Indonesia is expected to slow its output by 1.6 million tonnes or less, to 25.5 million tonnes,” he said yesterday during the palm oil price outlook session at the Palm & Lauric Oils Conference & Exhibition Price Outlook 2012 with the theme Global Shocks Local Impact. Mistry expects the price of CPO to hover at between RM3,450 and RM3,600 after June.
Another speaker at the conference, Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) senior research officer Ramli Abdullah, expects CPO prices to range from RM3,100 to RM3,610 per tonne. He said the prices were usually influenced by economic factors such as soybean oil prices, production and crude palm oil. “The production of palm oil for Malaysia is expected to increase to 19.36 million tonnes this year under normal weather situation and increase in new plantings, matured area and replanting,” he added.
LMC International chairman Dr James Fry said he forecast Malaysia's CPO production to be unchanged from the 2011 total at 18.9 million tonnes and forecast CPO price to be at an average of RM3,250 per tonnes if Brent crude oil trades at US$125 (RM375) per barrel. Rabobank International Asia Head of Food & Agribusiness Research & Advisory John Baker forecast Malaysia's CPO production this year to be 19.2 million tonnes, while price was expected to peak to near RM3,500 per tonne before starting to moderate after the second half of 2012.
Godrej International Ltd director Dorab Mistry believes that Malaysia's CPO production this year would be at the range of between 18.6 million tonnes and 19 million tonnes. “I'm expecting a flat production for Malaysia this year as a result of a low cycle for palm trees,” he said. Malaysia's CPO production in 2011 was 18.9 million tonnes. He expects the price of CPO to hover at between RM3,450 and RM3,600 per tonne after June and that it would decline only after evidence of the low cycle end around November. Touching on the export taxes by the Indonesia, he said Malaysia had effectively asked its refiners to fend for themselves. “Malaysia can opt to adopt a carbon copy of Indonesia's export tax regime and do away completely with the duty-free export quota for CPO. As they say, if you cannot beat them, you join them!” he said. It was reported that Indonesia had last year cut export taxes on refined grades that helped its domestic processors restart their factories and offer discounts to overseas buyers. That turned margins negative for refiners in Malaysia and the Government was looking at ways to keep investments flowing into its RM60bil sector. Malaysia usually charges a high duty on crude palm oil shipments to protect its domestic refining industry. It does not impose any export taxes on processed palm oil. The country has 51 refineries with a combined yearly capacity of 22.9 million tonnes. It is planning new capacity of 9.6 million tonnes
3-Mar-12 The Star Biz
“We expect Malaysia will increase its CPO output by only about 0.4 million tonnes to 19.3 million tonnes, while Indonesia is expected to slow its output by 1.6 million tonnes or less, to 25.5 million tonnes,” he said yesterday during the palm oil price outlook session at the Palm & Lauric Oils Conference & Exhibition Price Outlook 2012 with the theme Global Shocks Local Impact. Mistry expects the price of CPO to hover at between RM3,450 and RM3,600 after June.
Another speaker at the conference, Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) senior research officer Ramli Abdullah, expects CPO prices to range from RM3,100 to RM3,610 per tonne. He said the prices were usually influenced by economic factors such as soybean oil prices, production and crude palm oil. “The production of palm oil for Malaysia is expected to increase to 19.36 million tonnes this year under normal weather situation and increase in new plantings, matured area and replanting,” he added.
LMC International chairman Dr James Fry said he forecast Malaysia's CPO production to be unchanged from the 2011 total at 18.9 million tonnes and forecast CPO price to be at an average of RM3,250 per tonnes if Brent crude oil trades at US$125 (RM375) per barrel. Rabobank International Asia Head of Food & Agribusiness Research & Advisory John Baker forecast Malaysia's CPO production this year to be 19.2 million tonnes, while price was expected to peak to near RM3,500 per tonne before starting to moderate after the second half of 2012.
Godrej International Ltd director Dorab Mistry believes that Malaysia's CPO production this year would be at the range of between 18.6 million tonnes and 19 million tonnes. “I'm expecting a flat production for Malaysia this year as a result of a low cycle for palm trees,” he said. Malaysia's CPO production in 2011 was 18.9 million tonnes. He expects the price of CPO to hover at between RM3,450 and RM3,600 per tonne after June and that it would decline only after evidence of the low cycle end around November. Touching on the export taxes by the Indonesia, he said Malaysia had effectively asked its refiners to fend for themselves. “Malaysia can opt to adopt a carbon copy of Indonesia's export tax regime and do away completely with the duty-free export quota for CPO. As they say, if you cannot beat them, you join them!” he said. It was reported that Indonesia had last year cut export taxes on refined grades that helped its domestic processors restart their factories and offer discounts to overseas buyers. That turned margins negative for refiners in Malaysia and the Government was looking at ways to keep investments flowing into its RM60bil sector. Malaysia usually charges a high duty on crude palm oil shipments to protect its domestic refining industry. It does not impose any export taxes on processed palm oil. The country has 51 refineries with a combined yearly capacity of 22.9 million tonnes. It is planning new capacity of 9.6 million tonnes
3-Mar-12 The Star Biz
Thursday, March 08, 2012
Posted by Admin
市場潛能大 油脂化學商機無限
對許多行外人來說,油脂化學(Oleochemical)是個陌生的名詞;但這個化學原料不但與我們的生活息息相關,大馬股市里更有許多公司,是靠這個行業吃糊。掌握和瞭解油脂化學,對投資亦有幫助。
森那美(SIME,4197,主板貿服股)旗下子公司--Emery油脂化學公司在去年杪,特地為媒體主辦了一場油脂化學的入門講座。我們在這里要用最簡單易明的字眼,讓讀者們清楚瞭解什麼是油脂化學。
油脂化學無處不在
隨著業者們開始使用棕油作為油脂化學的原料,以確保可以長期有持續性供應。油脂化學領域已經迎來更亮麗的未來。考慮到行外人對油脂化學的認識有限,做為這領域的巨頭,Emery油脂化學首創先河,於去年12月在孟沙舉辦一場半天的行業培訓課程,希望透過國內媒體,讓市場更瞭解這領域。
除了讓媒體更瞭解油脂化學和功能,該公司也展示許多由油脂化學製成的日常用品。這些都是我們的生活必需品,但卻沒有想過它們的原料是來自何處。 從洗髮露、肥皂、牙膏、清潔劑、塑料、到白色家電等一系列家庭產品,都需要用上油脂化學作原料。
更讓人預想不到的是,就連撲克牌上的塗層和墨水,源頭竟然也是回到棕油和椰油。Emery油脂化學把自己形容為晶片業里的英特爾(Intel),但永遠都是屈居幕後不為人知。 世上首個商業化生產的油脂化學產品,原來是蠟燭。由美國辛辛那提貴族--Emery家族在1840年所製造的首根蠟燭,目前依然擺設在Emery油脂化學位於莎阿南Peremba Square的總部。
在油基產品當中,有個多功能的化學原料稱作甘油,帶甜而沒有顏色,可用來製造牙膏、咳藥水、漱口水等。 由脂肪酸和脂肪酯合成的脂肪醇,則可用作護膚霜和護膚膏的原料,還可以用來製造肥皂或沐浴露的泡沫。
大馬產量世界之最
大馬是全世界最大的油脂化學生產國,種植巨頭如IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主板種植股)和吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板種植股)都有自己的油脂化學業務。調查機構弗若斯特沙利文(Frost & Sullivan)在2010年的數據顯示,大馬油脂化學產量冠全球,占世界產量1/4,或26%比重。接著下來的是中國、歐洲、美國、印尼、印度、日 本,產量貢獻比重分別是21%、18%、13%、8%、8%、3%,而其他國家則佔其余3%。
值得注意的是,大馬產量多達七成是出口到國外的,但中國產量卻是100%內部消費,反映出油脂化學替我國賺取不少外匯。
百年企業設足全球三大洲
Emery油脂化學是森那美種植和泰國化學國際私人有限公司(PTT Chemical International),各持50%股權的聯營公司。森那美在2008年收購Emery油脂化學,並在一年後與泰國化學國際聯營。
Emery油脂化學是全世界最大的天然化學生產商之一,其總部設在莎阿南。該公司的生產線已經跨越三大區域,分別是在德國北威邦的杜塞道夫、美國俄亥俄州的辛辛那提、及雪州的直落(Telok Panglima Garang)。
由於行業前景還有許多挑戰,Emery油脂化學投資2億美元,用來擴充直落產能,料在今年首季正式投入運作。另外,該公司也在德國洛斯德(Loxstedt)、東京、多倫多、上海、南安普頓、首爾、香港屯門,設有銷售服務中心或倉庫。Emery油脂化學的產品多是使用可再生原料,如椰油以及棕油等。
下個全球大趨勢
雖然說全球未來5大趨勢,分別是人口老化(截至2050年,世界人口將暴漲至90億人,其中20億人已經超過60歲)、全球化、都市化、能源需求和環境保護意識提高、保健與營養意識提升。
可是,Emery油脂化學看到的另一個趨勢,是油脂化學的崛起,而且這個大趨勢正好發生在大馬。因此,東南亞國家即將成為、甚至已經成為油脂化學世界的核心基地。
Emery油脂化學的泰國籍董事魯吉(Ruj Purnariksha)指出,油脂化學的消費每年成長4%至5%,表現跑贏大部份先進國的經濟成長。不但如此,世界油脂化學消費的年複合成長率(CAGR)成長預測也達4%,足以顯示這商品的需求是持續性的。
油脂化學主要來自植物油(vegetable oil)和動物油(animal fat)。在Emery油脂化學,植物油和牛脂各佔原料的50%比重。 無論如何,其本地生產線是近乎100%使用植物原料,而美國生產線是100%使用牛脂。這主要是考慮到大馬更容易獲得棕油,美國則較容易在公開的商品市場上買進牛脂。歐洲生產線因處於美國和大馬之間,植物油和牛脂各佔原料比重50%。展望未來,油脂化學的成長焦點料以植物油(包括棕油)原料為主。Emery油脂化學將繼續依賴國內最大的兩家種植業集團--聯邦土地發展局控股(Felda Holdings)和森那美,向該公司提供足夠的原料。
可與石油化學共存
許多人認為,油脂化學崛起後,有朝一日將會取代石油化學。儘管如此,Emery油脂化學的卡馬爾並不認同。「卡車可以取代汽車嗎?當然不能。就好像油脂化學和石油化學,他們都有各自獨特的功能,儘管部份功能是重疊的。」卡馬爾也表示,油脂化學對環境生態是友好的。從採用原料的第一步,Emery油脂化學都沒有作任何加工,所有產品都是100%天然的。除了環保和再生使用,其產品亦會通過生物分解。更為重要的是,油脂化學是無毒的,用來製造食品和化妝產品再適合不過。
他笑說:「我們不是在為您解決問題,而只是在協助您創造更美好的生活。」據瞭解,許多石油化學產品都開始用上油脂化學作部份原料,但油脂化學還是無法完全取代石油化學。普遍而言,石油化學產品的原料有九成是石油化學,只有一成是油脂化學。
森那美(SIME,4197,主板貿服股)旗下子公司--Emery油脂化學公司在去年杪,特地為媒體主辦了一場油脂化學的入門講座。我們在這里要用最簡單易明的字眼,讓讀者們清楚瞭解什麼是油脂化學。
油脂化學無處不在
隨著業者們開始使用棕油作為油脂化學的原料,以確保可以長期有持續性供應。油脂化學領域已經迎來更亮麗的未來。考慮到行外人對油脂化學的認識有限,做為這領域的巨頭,Emery油脂化學首創先河,於去年12月在孟沙舉辦一場半天的行業培訓課程,希望透過國內媒體,讓市場更瞭解這領域。
除了讓媒體更瞭解油脂化學和功能,該公司也展示許多由油脂化學製成的日常用品。這些都是我們的生活必需品,但卻沒有想過它們的原料是來自何處。 從洗髮露、肥皂、牙膏、清潔劑、塑料、到白色家電等一系列家庭產品,都需要用上油脂化學作原料。
更讓人預想不到的是,就連撲克牌上的塗層和墨水,源頭竟然也是回到棕油和椰油。Emery油脂化學把自己形容為晶片業里的英特爾(Intel),但永遠都是屈居幕後不為人知。 世上首個商業化生產的油脂化學產品,原來是蠟燭。由美國辛辛那提貴族--Emery家族在1840年所製造的首根蠟燭,目前依然擺設在Emery油脂化學位於莎阿南Peremba Square的總部。
在油基產品當中,有個多功能的化學原料稱作甘油,帶甜而沒有顏色,可用來製造牙膏、咳藥水、漱口水等。 由脂肪酸和脂肪酯合成的脂肪醇,則可用作護膚霜和護膚膏的原料,還可以用來製造肥皂或沐浴露的泡沫。
大馬產量世界之最
大馬是全世界最大的油脂化學生產國,種植巨頭如IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主板種植股)和吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板種植股)都有自己的油脂化學業務。調查機構弗若斯特沙利文(Frost & Sullivan)在2010年的數據顯示,大馬油脂化學產量冠全球,占世界產量1/4,或26%比重。接著下來的是中國、歐洲、美國、印尼、印度、日 本,產量貢獻比重分別是21%、18%、13%、8%、8%、3%,而其他國家則佔其余3%。
值得注意的是,大馬產量多達七成是出口到國外的,但中國產量卻是100%內部消費,反映出油脂化學替我國賺取不少外匯。
百年企業設足全球三大洲
Emery油脂化學是森那美種植和泰國化學國際私人有限公司(PTT Chemical International),各持50%股權的聯營公司。森那美在2008年收購Emery油脂化學,並在一年後與泰國化學國際聯營。
Emery油脂化學是全世界最大的天然化學生產商之一,其總部設在莎阿南。該公司的生產線已經跨越三大區域,分別是在德國北威邦的杜塞道夫、美國俄亥俄州的辛辛那提、及雪州的直落(Telok Panglima Garang)。
由於行業前景還有許多挑戰,Emery油脂化學投資2億美元,用來擴充直落產能,料在今年首季正式投入運作。另外,該公司也在德國洛斯德(Loxstedt)、東京、多倫多、上海、南安普頓、首爾、香港屯門,設有銷售服務中心或倉庫。Emery油脂化學的產品多是使用可再生原料,如椰油以及棕油等。
下個全球大趨勢
雖然說全球未來5大趨勢,分別是人口老化(截至2050年,世界人口將暴漲至90億人,其中20億人已經超過60歲)、全球化、都市化、能源需求和環境保護意識提高、保健與營養意識提升。
可是,Emery油脂化學看到的另一個趨勢,是油脂化學的崛起,而且這個大趨勢正好發生在大馬。因此,東南亞國家即將成為、甚至已經成為油脂化學世界的核心基地。
Emery油脂化學的泰國籍董事魯吉(Ruj Purnariksha)指出,油脂化學的消費每年成長4%至5%,表現跑贏大部份先進國的經濟成長。不但如此,世界油脂化學消費的年複合成長率(CAGR)成長預測也達4%,足以顯示這商品的需求是持續性的。
油脂化學主要來自植物油(vegetable oil)和動物油(animal fat)。在Emery油脂化學,植物油和牛脂各佔原料的50%比重。 無論如何,其本地生產線是近乎100%使用植物原料,而美國生產線是100%使用牛脂。這主要是考慮到大馬更容易獲得棕油,美國則較容易在公開的商品市場上買進牛脂。歐洲生產線因處於美國和大馬之間,植物油和牛脂各佔原料比重50%。展望未來,油脂化學的成長焦點料以植物油(包括棕油)原料為主。Emery油脂化學將繼續依賴國內最大的兩家種植業集團--聯邦土地發展局控股(Felda Holdings)和森那美,向該公司提供足夠的原料。
可與石油化學共存
許多人認為,油脂化學崛起後,有朝一日將會取代石油化學。儘管如此,Emery油脂化學的卡馬爾並不認同。「卡車可以取代汽車嗎?當然不能。就好像油脂化學和石油化學,他們都有各自獨特的功能,儘管部份功能是重疊的。」卡馬爾也表示,油脂化學對環境生態是友好的。從採用原料的第一步,Emery油脂化學都沒有作任何加工,所有產品都是100%天然的。除了環保和再生使用,其產品亦會通過生物分解。更為重要的是,油脂化學是無毒的,用來製造食品和化妝產品再適合不過。
他笑說:「我們不是在為您解決問題,而只是在協助您創造更美好的生活。」據瞭解,許多石油化學產品都開始用上油脂化學作部份原料,但油脂化學還是無法完全取代石油化學。普遍而言,石油化學產品的原料有九成是石油化學,只有一成是油脂化學。
Monday, February 20, 2012
Posted by Admin
Indonesia to set up US$5.6b plantation firm
JAKARTA, Feb 2 — Indonesia’s government plans to create one of the world’s largest palm oil and rubber firms in March by combining state planters with total assets of US$5.6 billion (RM16.91 billion), a government minister told Reuters today.
A planned listing of the firm will tap investor interest in a country with a recently acquired “investment grade” rating and create a rival to top regional planters such as Malaysia‘s Sime Darby and Singapore‘s Wilmar.
The government will consolidate the assets of 15 state firms, whose revenues last year stood at around 40 trillion rupiah (US$4.45 billion), under parent company PT Perkebunan Nusantara III.
“This holding will become one of the largest plantation firms in the world with one million hectares of palm oil and rubber,” State Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan said in an interview.
The sprawling archipelago of 17,000 islands is the world’s biggest exporter of palm oil, second biggest producer of rubber and robusta coffee and third biggest producer of cocoa. The state firms produce all these commodities as well as tea, rice, cassava and sugar.
Analysts said the consolidation of the state firms would produce some economies of scale but would not have a dramatic impact on commodity supply.
“They have been producing. It is not new supply coming into the market. This is just a rationalisation of government linked assets,” said Carey Wong, an analyst with OCBC Bank in Singapore.
The last mega-plantation merger was in 2008 when Malaysia’s government pushed for the tie-up of three state-linked planters to form Sime Darby, which it touted as the largest plantation firm by assets.
Borneo rice bowl
Indonesian state plantation firms will combine to produce an extra 500,000 tonnes of rice from planting 100,000 hectares of new paddy fields in east Kalimantan on Borneo island, Iskan said, without giving a timeframe for the production.
Indonesia, the world’s fourth largest country by population, is trying to become self-sufficient in production of its staple grain. But it surprised regional markets last year with hefty imports from Thailand and Vietnam. Expanding paddies could help its aim not to import again this year.
“I expect Indonesia could produce an additional 280,000-300,000 tonnes of paddy from the newly planted areas of 100,000 hectares,” said Chookiat Ophaswongse, the honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
Plantation firms have been restricted this year from expanding in forested areas such as Borneo by Indonesia‘s two-year moratorium on new forest clearance and land acquisition is in any case seen as a hurdle in a country known for red tape.
Indonesia in December passed a land bill designed to speed up land acquisition for state projects deemed in the public interest and the law could enable the new firm to get access to land for rice.
Top landbank
Iskan said the combined profits of the firms to be amalgamated were around 3.6 trillion rupiah. The government plans to first list one of the firms, PT Perkebunan Nusantara VII, as a unit of the holding firm this year on Jakarta‘s stock exchange.
“After PTPN VII, we’re open for other units to list on the stock exchange but eventually we will list the parent company and I don’t think we should retain a majority stake once it is listed,” Iskan said.
The combined palm oil and rubber landbank of the holding company Perkebunan Nusantara III will be bigger than that of the main existing listed regional planters. Sime Darby currently tops the list with 525,795 hectares for palm oil and has a market value of US$18.2 billion.
Analysts said the new Indonesian merger’s hefty landbank would pull in investors.
“It is massive. They are talking about a million hectares. That would be massive. I’m sure the stock market will be very excited,” said John Rachmat, a palm oil analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore. — Reuters
Friday, February 03, 2012
Posted by Admin
种植股可趁低累积
已处超卖格局 种植股可趁低累积
(吉隆坡25日讯)即使原棕油价格触及和维持于每公吨2000令吉,以及归纳了急剧上升的肥料成本(30%园丘生产成本),种植业者仍然可取得相当大的20至26%税前盈利率。 亚欧美投资银行的计算归纳了2009年肥料成本增加一倍,将行业平均生产成本推高40%至每吨1200令吉。 该投资银行指出,基本上,种植股现已经超卖,并呈现累积机会。 它已重新评估的催化剂将是原棕油价格持续复苏,以及现金充裕的公司采取更积极的资金管理措施。它再提出相反观点,把该行业评级由减持调高至增持,并重申买入森那美(SIME)和亚地发展(ASIATIC)。
与此同时,它也调高凯业集团至短期买入(由全面到值),以及吉隆坡甲洞至买入(由持有),但是TH种值(THPLANT)却由买入调降至持有。 虽然原棕油价格在短期内可能继续疲软,价格应在2008年第4季之前趋稳,反映供应紧绌,但随着2008年丰收(在2008年上半年)后,该行业将进入2008年12月至2009年6月的低生产季节,而收益也会相应减低。 基于多个因素,原棕油基本面完好无损。
亚欧美投资银行透露,这包括逐渐富裕和人口高度稠密经济体例如中国与印度的植物油耗量、可能有更具破坏力的气候模式影响供应、食品至燃油转化相关的需求结构性改变(即是生物柴油)、以及在新兴经济体例如中国与印度对大豆油需求以原棕油取代。与此同时,目前原棕油与大豆油价格之间差额,也扩大至大约每公吨400美元,比较其历来差距只有每公吨100美元。 然而,亚欧美投资银行指出,原棕油价格下跌风险仍然存在,这包括美元急剧复苏和对商品价格的相互负面关系、商品基金继续被脱售、以及短期内玉米与大豆在南美洲晋入裁种的季节。 由于玉米栽种成本高,如果农民选择栽种更多大豆而不是玉米,可能对原棕油价格造成下跌压力。
与此同时,它也调高凯业集团至短期买入(由全面到值),以及吉隆坡甲洞至买入(由持有),但是TH种值(THPLANT)却由买入调降至持有。 虽然原棕油价格在短期内可能继续疲软,价格应在2008年第4季之前趋稳,反映供应紧绌,但随着2008年丰收(在2008年上半年)后,该行业将进入2008年12月至2009年6月的低生产季节,而收益也会相应减低。 基于多个因素,原棕油基本面完好无损。
亚欧美投资银行透露,这包括逐渐富裕和人口高度稠密经济体例如中国与印度的植物油耗量、可能有更具破坏力的气候模式影响供应、食品至燃油转化相关的需求结构性改变(即是生物柴油)、以及在新兴经济体例如中国与印度对大豆油需求以原棕油取代。与此同时,目前原棕油与大豆油价格之间差额,也扩大至大约每公吨400美元,比较其历来差距只有每公吨100美元。 然而,亚欧美投资银行指出,原棕油价格下跌风险仍然存在,这包括美元急剧复苏和对商品价格的相互负面关系、商品基金继续被脱售、以及短期内玉米与大豆在南美洲晋入裁种的季节。 由于玉米栽种成本高,如果农民选择栽种更多大豆而不是玉米,可能对原棕油价格造成下跌压力。
CPO slips below RM3,000 a tonne
30-07-2008: By Lu Jing Shia
PETALING JAYA: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures fell below the RM3,000-per-tonne mark for the first time this year due to higher output and slower exports after having made significant gains throughout the early half of 2008. At the close yesterday, CPO for benchmark October delivery fell RM32 per tonne to RM2,969, while contracts for August and September dropped RM69 and RM17 per tonne to RM2,986 and RM2,984, respectively. CPO prices hit a record RM4,486 per tonne in March this year amid soaring crude oil prices, but have since tapered down with declining global oil prices. Crude oil price has fallen by almost US$25 per barrel since a high of almost US$149 per barrel about three weeks ago. Light, sweet crude was trading at US$124.73 (RM407.87) on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday.
Industry observers said the CPO prices had softened due to increased stockpile and that it would be temporary. They are optimistic of the commodity’s long-term outlook. TA Securities senior analyst James Ratnam said the general outlook for CPO futures would remain above RM3,000 per tonne, while the issue of high output would soon be settled when countries such as China replenished its reserves.“Seasonally, palm oil production is higher in the second half of the year than in the first. Exports actually increased from last year but the production still grew at a faster pace, resulting in the current lower market price,” he said. Ratnam echoed Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui’s assessment of current global market sentiment.
Speaking at a seminar titled Alternative Raw Material for the Panel Board Industry in Malaysia in Serdang yesterday, Chin said the government was closely monitoring the present trend to see whether it was for the short term or a longer period. He said the government was also looking at encouraging higher CPO exports and turning more of the commodity into fuel and for domestic use, such as cooking oil. “If excess stock in our country has caused traders to delay, or not buy, or delay buying, then we will take appropriate measures to ensure that stocks will not remain high,” said Chin.
Statistics released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on July 10 noted that higher production and slower exports caused the country’s stockpile to rise to a record of 2.04 million tonnes in June from 1.91 million tonnes in May. Exports, however, declined from 1.20 million tonnes in May to 1.12 million tonnes in June. Chin said while a decline in crude oil prices would have an impact on CPO prices, he remained optimistic that CPO prices would not fall below RM2,000 per tonne. “Palm by itself already has a huge market and the world is short of oils and fats. Furthermore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Argentina are the only countries in the world that are net exporters of oils and fats. So I don’t see prices coming down at any drastic level,” he said.Chin also said the plummeting CPO price would not affect the government’s RM60 billion target for palm oil exports this year.
Meanwhile, commenting on the mounting pressure from non-governmental organisations (NGOs) that accuse palm oil industry players of irresponsible practices, Chin said the government was looking at how influential the campaigns carried out by these NGOs were.“These are aspects that are not necessarily manipulating the price in the market, but we are looking at them in order to see which part has a direct influence on this price trend,” he said.
PETALING JAYA: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures fell below the RM3,000-per-tonne mark for the first time this year due to higher output and slower exports after having made significant gains throughout the early half of 2008. At the close yesterday, CPO for benchmark October delivery fell RM32 per tonne to RM2,969, while contracts for August and September dropped RM69 and RM17 per tonne to RM2,986 and RM2,984, respectively. CPO prices hit a record RM4,486 per tonne in March this year amid soaring crude oil prices, but have since tapered down with declining global oil prices. Crude oil price has fallen by almost US$25 per barrel since a high of almost US$149 per barrel about three weeks ago. Light, sweet crude was trading at US$124.73 (RM407.87) on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday.
Industry observers said the CPO prices had softened due to increased stockpile and that it would be temporary. They are optimistic of the commodity’s long-term outlook. TA Securities senior analyst James Ratnam said the general outlook for CPO futures would remain above RM3,000 per tonne, while the issue of high output would soon be settled when countries such as China replenished its reserves.“Seasonally, palm oil production is higher in the second half of the year than in the first. Exports actually increased from last year but the production still grew at a faster pace, resulting in the current lower market price,” he said. Ratnam echoed Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui’s assessment of current global market sentiment.
Speaking at a seminar titled Alternative Raw Material for the Panel Board Industry in Malaysia in Serdang yesterday, Chin said the government was closely monitoring the present trend to see whether it was for the short term or a longer period. He said the government was also looking at encouraging higher CPO exports and turning more of the commodity into fuel and for domestic use, such as cooking oil. “If excess stock in our country has caused traders to delay, or not buy, or delay buying, then we will take appropriate measures to ensure that stocks will not remain high,” said Chin.
Statistics released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on July 10 noted that higher production and slower exports caused the country’s stockpile to rise to a record of 2.04 million tonnes in June from 1.91 million tonnes in May. Exports, however, declined from 1.20 million tonnes in May to 1.12 million tonnes in June. Chin said while a decline in crude oil prices would have an impact on CPO prices, he remained optimistic that CPO prices would not fall below RM2,000 per tonne. “Palm by itself already has a huge market and the world is short of oils and fats. Furthermore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Argentina are the only countries in the world that are net exporters of oils and fats. So I don’t see prices coming down at any drastic level,” he said.Chin also said the plummeting CPO price would not affect the government’s RM60 billion target for palm oil exports this year.
Meanwhile, commenting on the mounting pressure from non-governmental organisations (NGOs) that accuse palm oil industry players of irresponsible practices, Chin said the government was looking at how influential the campaigns carried out by these NGOs were.“These are aspects that are not necessarily manipulating the price in the market, but we are looking at them in order to see which part has a direct influence on this price trend,” he said.
Blogged with the Flock Browser
