Showing posts with label TSH. Show all posts
與蘇祿軍對峙若持久‧種植業或首當其衝
（吉隆坡4日訊）菲南武裝份子蘇祿軍入侵沙巴拿篤和西南部的古納與仙本那地區，已經演變成鎗戰，造成傷亡，基於局勢仍處於對峙與風聲鶴唳狀態，沙巴10萬公頃油棕園中聯土全球（FGV，5222，主板種植組）1千公頃園地已被禁出入，儘管目前對種植公司衝擊仍極微。不過，分析員認為若對峙鬥爭情況曠日持久，不僅種植公司將受衝擊，連帶的其他各領域也不免衝擊擴大。
種植業面臨盈利懸崖＂‧末季盈利料挫30%
吉隆坡4日訊）種植股第三季業績令市場大失所望，歸咎於棕油價疲弱及庫存高企，肯納格研究不排除種植業將陷入“盈利懸崖＂，末季盈利料至少按年及按季挫30%及20%，種植股財測最高遭下調14%，並相信仍有進一步滑跌空間。
庫存按月跌1%
按年大增20%
按年大增20%
肯納格預期11月棕油產量仍高企於249萬公噸，接近歷史高位，導致棕油價揚升空間受限，短期內難以突破2千500令吉。雖然按月棕油庫存微跌1%，不過卻按年顯著攀升20%。
“我們相信高庫存困境將延續至明年首季，3千令吉成為重大阻力水平。＂
按季計，種植股盈利或將丟失超過20%，因為末季棕油價料挫跌21%至2千250令吉。
“由於棕油價從10月初起跌穿2千500令吉，並已處於低位多時，我們相信末季盈利的挫跌幅度將相距不遠，且可能引來另一輪強烈的盈利下調。＂
受到勞工成本高企影響，棕油生產成本也上漲5%，不過隨著鮮果串產量走勢平平，整體生產成本料已趨穩。
需求方面，肯納格預計11月棕油出口將按月增長5%至185萬公噸，受惠於中國交易商提昇棕油庫存。供應方面，該行則臆測按月產量走跌6%至182萬公噸。
隨著北半球邁入冬天，預計棕油與大豆油的龐大價差將維持另3個月。由於棕油遇冷後會凝固，因此消費者將喜愛使用大豆油。
種植股發盈利預警
以238萬至248萬公噸庫存計，肯納格將今明2年棕油價，各從每公噸2千975及3千令吉，下調3%至5%，至2千900及2千850令吉。
“今年2千900令吉預估，相等於棕油價下跌了10%，而2013年則料再挫2%至2千850令吉。＂
國內3大種植股已發出盈利可能滑跌的訊號，森那美（SIME，4197，主板貿服組）僅設下32億令吉淨利關鍵表現指標、吉隆坡甲洞（KLK，2445，主板種植組）預期盈利走跌、IOI集團（IOICORP，1961，主板種植組）也指最近幾個月棕油價低企將影響淨利水平。
肯納格以個股計，聯土全球（FGV，5222，主板種植組）及IOI集團面對龐大的樹壓衝擊，因為其種植地趨向成熟階段，平均樹齡各為16.5及13.7年。
怡保種植（IJMPLNT，2216，主板種植組）及陳順風資源（TSH，9059，主板種植組）受沙巴種植地鮮果串產量低企影響。陳順風資源盈利下滑幅度最甚，歸咎於鮮果串產量挫跌7%、棕油價走低及生產成本至少揚升15%。
受到種種利空因素影響，肯納格將種植業評級從“中和＂下調至“減碼＂。（星洲日報／財經）
TSH Resources to spend up to RM1b over 5 years
PETALING JAYA (May 23, 2012): TSH Resources Bhd expects to spend between RM750 million and RM1 billion over the next five years to plant more oil palm and rubber to cater to its plantation business and to build more palm oil mills.
Chairman Datuk Dr Kelvin Tan said the projected capital expenditure would be financed from internally-generated funds.
"We always had a target of planting 6,000-7,000ha annually, between 4,000ha and 5,000ha would involve planting of oil palm and 1,000ha rubber," he told a press conference after the group's annual general meeting today.
Tan said the group expects a double-digit growth a year for production of fresh fruit bunches (FFBs) for the next three years.
"Our FFB production grew at an average 34 per cent a year over the past three years from 2008 to 2011, mainly from our plantation in Indonesia.
"Eighty per cent of our oil palm trees are below maturity, which means these trees will continue to produce more FFBs year-on-year," he said.
Tan said the first quarter of the year was a weak season for any palm oil estate. However, he was optimistic that the second half of this year would give a big boost for production.
On palm oil mills, group managing director Datuk Tan Aik Sim said his company has three mills in Sabah and two in Indonesia.
"We plan to build another two mills in Indonesia, one in July and another in about two years. We also plan to add another mill in Sabah at the end of 2013," he said.
On landbank expansion, the group hoped to acquire another 15,000ha to 20,000ha in Indonesia this year, while continuing to look for more land in Sabah to add to its existing over 60,000ha.
On outlook, the group was optimistic that the 2012 financial year would be even better than last year. – Bernama
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TSH
TSH’s earnings hit new record
Insider Asia Written by Insider Asia Friday, 24 February 2012 11:20
Having said that, the company is already reaping the benefits of its new planting programme in Indonesia of the past few years. FFB output jumped 43% to 399,604 tonnes in 2011, underpinned by rapidly rising yields from the newly matured estates.
Accordingly, earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) from the plantation business increased to RM191.7 million, up 56.1% year-on-year, on the back of stronger production and higher average CPO prices.
FFB output growth underpins earnings and cash flow
With more areas coming into maturity, FFB output is forecast to increase by a further 18% in the current year before ticking higher again by some 28% to over 600,000 tonnes in 2013. TSH has a relatively high 46% of oil palm trees that are below the age of three while another 29% are in the steep rising yield ages of four to seven years.
We estimate net profit growth at a more modest 8% to roughly RM130 million in 2012, where the strong output growth is expected to more than offset lower CPO selling prices. Earnings are forecast to enjoy a stronger boost in 2013 — to about RM158 million — on the back of higher FFB production growth and expectations for stable CPO prices.
We assume average CPO prices at RM3,000 per tonne for the two years compared with the average of RM3,127 per tonne in 2011. CPO prices averaged at RM3,183 per tonne in January, while the benchmark futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are currently hovering around RM3,250 per tonne.
Valuations are still attractive relative to growth prospects
Based on our forecast, the stock is trading at around 13.5 times earnings for 2012 and 11.1 times for 2013. This compares well against the industry’s average valuations.
Large plantation stocks such as IOI Corp Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd and to a lesser extent, Genting Plantations Bhd, are trading at price-earnings ratios (PER) nearer the high teens, their premiums justified by factors such as larger sizes, liquidity and track record. TSH’s valuations also compare well against mid- and smaller-sized plantation stocks like IJM Plantations Bhd, which is trading at PER around the mid-teens.
In addition, both IJM Plantations and Genting Plantations’ big growth in FFB output is expected in 2014/15. By comparison, TSH’s is more immediate, albeit from a smaller base.
Improving cash to support future expansions
Gearing was relatively high — at 79% as at end-2011 — due to the company’s recent expansion and the gestation period for oil palm. This should, however, gradually improve with the rising FFB output.
Indeed, rising cash flow from the business will support a more aggressive planting programme over the next few years. We estimate TSH will raise new planting up to some 4,000ha to 5,000ha annually, up from roughly 2,000ha to 4,000ha per year in the past three years.
A second palm oil mill in Kalimantan is slated to come onstream in 1H12, in lock step with the company’s rising FFB output. Currently, TSH operates five mills, three of which are located in Sabah where it processes FFB from its own estates and that purchased from third parties.
TSH is firmly focused on the oil palm plantation business. Aside from oil palm plantations, TSH has a 50% stake in a downstream refinery project, under a joint venture with Wilmar International. The refinery has a capacity of about 750,000 tonnes and contributed to the bulk of TSH’s associate pre-tax earnings of RM21.3 million in 2011.
Its other businesses of wood products and cocoa processing are expected to play only a marginal role. The former was loss-making in 2011, with sales affected by the sluggish demand in Europe. The cocoa processing business reported Ebit of just about RM2.1 million last year, hurt by lower demand and prices for cocoa butter.
Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
TSH Resources Bhd chalked up a record high profit for FY11 ended December. Net profit surged 43% to RM120.5 million on the back of a sharp jump in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production and higher average crude palm oil (CPO) prices.
Based on the company’s planting up programme in the past few years, we expect continued double-digit FFB output growth, which would support earnings expansion for the foreseeable future. Although its shares have performed well last year — gaining 38% — valuations remain at the lower end of the sector’s average. The stock is trading at roughly 13.4 times our estimated earnings for 2012 and 11.1 times for 2013 at the current price of RM2.15. We are therefore sanguine on TSH’s prospects.
A first and final net dividend of 3.5 sen per share has been proposed, translating into a modest yield of 1.6% at the prevailing price. The entitlement date is yet to be fixed.
An emerging plantation player
We believe TSH is a solid plantation stock choice for investors with a longer-term horizon. The company is a relative newcomer to the industry. Although its first 4,750ha of oil palm plantations in Sabah was acquired back in the late 1980s, the major expansion drive only started in 2006. Since then, the company’s landbank has grown to nearly 99,400ha. All of the new acquisitions were in Indonesia. Only 30% of these have been planted to date so the full potential is in the future.
Based on the company’s planting up programme in the past few years, we expect continued double-digit FFB output growth, which would support earnings expansion for the foreseeable future. Although its shares have performed well last year — gaining 38% — valuations remain at the lower end of the sector’s average. The stock is trading at roughly 13.4 times our estimated earnings for 2012 and 11.1 times for 2013 at the current price of RM2.15. We are therefore sanguine on TSH’s prospects.
A first and final net dividend of 3.5 sen per share has been proposed, translating into a modest yield of 1.6% at the prevailing price. The entitlement date is yet to be fixed.
An emerging plantation player
We believe TSH is a solid plantation stock choice for investors with a longer-term horizon. The company is a relative newcomer to the industry. Although its first 4,750ha of oil palm plantations in Sabah was acquired back in the late 1980s, the major expansion drive only started in 2006. Since then, the company’s landbank has grown to nearly 99,400ha. All of the new acquisitions were in Indonesia. Only 30% of these have been planted to date so the full potential is in the future.
Accordingly, earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) from the plantation business increased to RM191.7 million, up 56.1% year-on-year, on the back of stronger production and higher average CPO prices.
With more areas coming into maturity, FFB output is forecast to increase by a further 18% in the current year before ticking higher again by some 28% to over 600,000 tonnes in 2013. TSH has a relatively high 46% of oil palm trees that are below the age of three while another 29% are in the steep rising yield ages of four to seven years.
We estimate net profit growth at a more modest 8% to roughly RM130 million in 2012, where the strong output growth is expected to more than offset lower CPO selling prices. Earnings are forecast to enjoy a stronger boost in 2013 — to about RM158 million — on the back of higher FFB production growth and expectations for stable CPO prices.
We assume average CPO prices at RM3,000 per tonne for the two years compared with the average of RM3,127 per tonne in 2011. CPO prices averaged at RM3,183 per tonne in January, while the benchmark futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are currently hovering around RM3,250 per tonne.
Valuations are still attractive relative to growth prospects
Based on our forecast, the stock is trading at around 13.5 times earnings for 2012 and 11.1 times for 2013. This compares well against the industry’s average valuations.
Large plantation stocks such as IOI Corp Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd and to a lesser extent, Genting Plantations Bhd, are trading at price-earnings ratios (PER) nearer the high teens, their premiums justified by factors such as larger sizes, liquidity and track record. TSH’s valuations also compare well against mid- and smaller-sized plantation stocks like IJM Plantations Bhd, which is trading at PER around the mid-teens.
In addition, both IJM Plantations and Genting Plantations’ big growth in FFB output is expected in 2014/15. By comparison, TSH’s is more immediate, albeit from a smaller base.
Improving cash to support future expansions
Gearing was relatively high — at 79% as at end-2011 — due to the company’s recent expansion and the gestation period for oil palm. This should, however, gradually improve with the rising FFB output.
Indeed, rising cash flow from the business will support a more aggressive planting programme over the next few years. We estimate TSH will raise new planting up to some 4,000ha to 5,000ha annually, up from roughly 2,000ha to 4,000ha per year in the past three years.
A second palm oil mill in Kalimantan is slated to come onstream in 1H12, in lock step with the company’s rising FFB output. Currently, TSH operates five mills, three of which are located in Sabah where it processes FFB from its own estates and that purchased from third parties.
TSH is firmly focused on the oil palm plantation business. Aside from oil palm plantations, TSH has a 50% stake in a downstream refinery project, under a joint venture with Wilmar International. The refinery has a capacity of about 750,000 tonnes and contributed to the bulk of TSH’s associate pre-tax earnings of RM21.3 million in 2011.
Its other businesses of wood products and cocoa processing are expected to play only a marginal role. The former was loss-making in 2011, with sales affected by the sluggish demand in Europe. The cocoa processing business reported Ebit of just about RM2.1 million last year, hurt by lower demand and prices for cocoa butter.
Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, February 24, 2012.
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TSH
Palm oil exports to rise in 2012
KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil exports from Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, may climb as much as 10% this year, expanding faster than local output and helping to drive down stockpiles and support prices, an industry group forecast.
Exports may climb to a record 19.8 million tonnes from last year's 18 million tonnes as demand in India and China gained, Malaysian Palm Oil Council chairman Lee Yeow Chor, said in an interview. The price may advance 3.9% to RM3,300 per tonne in 2012, according to Lee.
Declining stockpiles in Malaysia, which have held above 2 million tonnes since September, may help futures extend a 15% rally since October, boosting profits at growers IOI Corp Bhd and Sime Darby Bhd. Credit Suisse Group AG raised its forecast for 2012 prices 28% to RM3,200 on Feb 1, saying supplies will be capped, while demand remains strong.
“The market hasn't completely accounted for the amount of vegetable oil demand that's going to be shifting to palm oil this year,” said Erin FitzPatrick, an analyst at Rabobank International in London. Prices were holding above RM3,000 on prospects for lower global soybean oil and rapeseed oil output, FitzPatrick said by phone on Wednesday.
The April-delivery contract fell as much as 1% to RM3,166 on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange yesterday before trading at RM3,177 at 11.55am. While the price is little changed this year, it's rallied from a 12-month low of RM2,754 on Oct 6.
Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd, has forecast a bull market in palm oil this year as demand growth outstrips the projected increase in production. The price may reach RM4,000 by June, Mistry forecast in December.
Global soybean oil exports may decline to 8.56 million tonnes this year from 9.5 million in 2011, according to a forecast from the US Department of Agriculture. Months of dryness caused by the La Nina weather pattern have parched crops in South America. Palm-oil stockpiles may drop to “healthy levels” from April as shipments from Malaysia rose on growing production after the seasonally low-output months of January and February, Lee said. Global vegetable oil demand may grow by 3% to 5% in 2012, said Lee, who's also executive director at IOI Corp, Malaysia's second largest listed producer.
“If we can reduce the stocks to around 1.7 million tonnes, it will be a very positive development,” said Lee, who forecast an increase in shipments of 5% to 10%. Growing demand from China, India and African countries would offset slowing imports in European countries caused by a reduction in biofuel usage and sustainability issues, he said.
Malaysian output would show “moderate” growth of less than 5% in 2012 after a “significant” increase last year, Lee said.
Output climbed 11% to 18.9 million tonnes in 2011 from 16.99 million tonnes a year earlier, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Production may be 19 million tonnes this year as more plantations mature, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Bernard Dompoksaid on Jan 19.
Malaysia was promoting new uses for the tropical oil, which included anti-oxidants such as tocotrienols and phenolics, as well as furniture made from the wood from the oil palm's trunk, said Lee.
Indonesia, the biggest producer, cut the maximum tax rate on crude palm oil exports last October and imposed lower duties on processed products to help the local refining industry.
If the export duty in Indonesia was helping its mid-tier refineries, one strategy for Malaysia was to go further up the so-called value chain, said Lee. “Those are very competitive” products, he said, referring to output such as oleochemicals, food esters and specialty chemicals and fats. - Bloomberg
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BLD Plantation,
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Jaya Tiasa,
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Malaysia Oil Palm Plantation Company Estate Profile @ FY2010
Gross(Ha) - Total Gross Plantation Area
Planted(Ha) - Planted Area (ha)
Matured(Ha) -Matured Area(ha)
Immat.(Ha) - Planted but immatured Area (ha)
FFB (MT) - Fresh Fruit Bunches (MT)
MT/Ha - Number of FFB produced in a hectares of matured area
Profit (RM) - Total Net Profit in RM'million
RM/Ha - Net Profit Per Matured Area
No. Shares - Total number of shares of the listed company (in million)
(M)Ha/Lot - Matured Area per 1000 shares
(P)Ha/Lot - Planted Area per 1000 shares
三大因素 牽動2012棕油價
東方新聞網
隨著原棕油（CPO)價格從10月份的每公噸2787令吉反彈，目前價格已衝破3000令吉大關。黃氏星展唯高達研究預測，原棕油價明年將觸及每公噸4000令吉的新高水平。分析員認為，將有三大元素影響2012年棕油價格前景。
TSH in plantation business
TSH has been involved in oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysia since the late 1980s and expanded plantation activities to West Sumantra and Kalimantan, Indonesia in 2003. TSH has planted areas in Sabah and Indonesia total 20,000 ha with 5,000 ha in Sabah and the balance in Indonesia. They have approximately 60,000 ha of land bank in Indonesia and are continuously seeking for opportunities to further increase our plantation hectareage in Indonesia.
The group have 3 palm oil mills in Sabah, Malaysia and another in West Sumantra, Indonesia with a combined processing capacity of close to 1.5 million tonnes of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) per annum. Their Sabah–based palm oil mills are located along Tawau - Lahad Datu - Sandakan highway or more fondly known as Sabah Oil Palm Belt. Representing 70% of total planted areas in Sabah, Sabah Palm Oil Belt produces an average of 18 million tonnes of FFB per annum to sustain our throughput demand. The 4th palm oil mill is located in Padang, West Sumantra, Indonesia. They have also ventured further downstream to refining crude palm oil and kernel crushing through a 50-50 joint venture with Wilmar International Ltd., a revered player in global vegetable fat industry listed on Singapore Stock Exchange. Strategically located at Kunak, Sabah, the refinery and kernel crushing plant have throughput capacities of 800,000 tonnes and 180,000 tonnes respectively.
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