Showing posts with label GAB. Show all posts
听企业领导真心说来年企业展望，是最好的投资讯息
2014年災難與挑戰不斷，2015年仍有強勁逆風，尤其消費稅（GST）出爐勢必打擊消費情緒，各企業碩彥做好本份運籌帷幄，提高競爭力和創新，勇迎逆風抗挑戰！
2014年對AXIS產托是收購“豐收年”，8月以逾2億8千萬令吉與相關方簽約收購3產業，11月間獲股東特大批准。10月初，AXIS產托以1億5千350萬令吉收購新山努沙再也SiLC工業園的工業產業。
2014年總計注入4億3千400萬令吉新資產，使管理產業增至20億令吉。公司每單位派息改善13%，由2013年第三季13.8仙增至今年第三季的15.6仙，包括3月間脫售Axis大廈所得而派發1千零95萬2千令吉。截至第三季估值獲益2千零86億9千令吉。
其餘包括7月間完成了強化Axis Business Campus產業與準備出租，首半年成功實施紅利再投資計劃（IDRP），成功率達84%；第五次成功發8千257萬9千942新單位，以減低收購新資產之負債，該新單位籌資2億8千800萬令吉。
2014年首季完成先進財政預算與金融和就業成本預算，此會計系統遵循消費稅（GST）規格，也成功推展信託永續計劃。
全球油價與原產品價格下跌勢將衝擊大馬成長，除非2015年首季回彈。很多油氣領域與涉原產品之企業，在第四季時就下砍財測。
第四季也是馬股最糟一季，馬幣跌至新低，暴露於美元貸款之企業感擔憂。此後發展仍拭目以待，積極進取之管理可安渡難關。
將維持國內導向
產託股截至12月中過去四週抗跌，主要是收入可預測、長遠租約兼租予A級租戶。
AXIS產托將維持國內導向，無計劃注入外國資產。
“目前疲軟產業市場，提供很多｀買進’機會，主要是很多公司欲減輕盈虧表，脫售產業與產托公司，然後安排租回有關產業；簡言之，2015年我們將繼續成長。”
在波動環境中，公司藉併購增值、強化資產以增租金與驅動價值、資金管理以抑低利息、控制營運成本、管理與照顧租戶，同時也酌情脫售成熟資產強化單位回酬；這些策略是商業之核心哲學，但願獲優渥回酬。
A產託併購B產託執行方式艱難，這畢竟涉兩家不同管理與定價。不排除資產豐富公司，注入產業而持若干股。
坊間很多產託學術書籍，個人的新年願望，是從實踐者角度撰寫這類書，梳理產託經歷之過程與挑戰。
至於公司方面，將持續以“逢低買進，逢高售出”推動成長，並使企業監管立於高水平；透過培訓和徵才，期許在亞洲產託建立最佳隊伍。
“我亦衷心希望各族保持中庸，抗拒種族與極端化。”
截至2014年10月31日首季，營業額與淨利皆取得雙位數強勁增長，其中營業額揚20.7%至3億9千320萬令吉，第二季業績於2015年2月公佈。
消費情緒稍改善，行業前景良好；近月執法單位嚴打違禁啤酒，違禁品不付關稅且價低，深受價格敏感者喜愛，然而素質與來源卻不確定，希望關稅局與反貪局續加緊執法。
謹慎樂觀迎2015年
健力士英格集中心力改善成長契機、加速創新和最大化投資效能，對2015財政年增長勢頭保持謹慎樂觀。
國內外機構預測我國經濟維持強勁成長，政府採取措施鞏固財政，實施消費稅（GST）與減津，中至長期有利大馬。然而這造成短期干擾、衝擊消費；同期原油價下跌、馬幣走疲料衝擊大馬經濟。
2015財政年成長動力是在三大核心的虎啤、健力士與海尼根品牌決勝千里，同時持續推動創新推介新產品新品牌，改善成本效益使營運更有效率。
將支持政府嚴打違禁
集團也鑑定銷售渠道的主要成長機遇，持續改善產品和價格組合；基於違禁品事關重大，將支持政府嚴打違禁。
2014年推介很多新產品，4月間引進日本第一的100%麥芽啤酒麒麟（Kirin Ichiban），6月再引入思美洛（Smirnoff）低酒精調酒飲料（RTD）。10月再推二次發酵比利時精釀阿弗林肯啤酒（Affligem），11月強弓蘋果啤酒再添三口味―金黃、蜜糖和接骨木花（Elderflower）口味。
雖忙碌而令人振奮，這是集團力爭上游的創新策略；消費群目光銳利、日益講究，引入更多啤酒乃策略考量，以迎合不斷改變的味蕾。
集團宣導負責任享受啤酒美味，未來很多佳節接踵而至，透過網際版（webisodes）宣導，有關宣導也上載健力士英格品牌之社交媒體平台。
期許G S T順利過渡，大馬在2020宏願軌道、持續嚴打違禁品。
基於消費情緒疲弱，2014年是啤酒業挑戰與風暴之一年，增稅措施和違禁啤酒充斥市場，公司適時調整商業模式以切合年頭所訂目標，這從第三季業績可見一斑。
營商環境不利時，我們鎖定客戶目標群，有喜好啤酒、黑啤、蘋果酒的，同時積極管控成本。這年也獲客戶認同建立品牌之努力，其中旗下“皇帽”連續五次獲傑出布特拉品牌獎，亦膺選The Edge十億令吉俱樂部企業獎。
效益為企業長征根本，除謹慎管控成本，不犧牲人源、商業伙伴與品牌之投資，持續促成盈利增長。
預期目前大馬疲弱宏觀經濟持續，加上生活成本提高，高稅率和馬幣貶值之波動，而消費稅的實施也勢必衝擊人們消費能力。新加坡獨資子公司之業務，則基於具韌力經濟與消費人對前景樂觀，預期早兩年改善之商業模式可捎來佳績。
另外，收購具獨家分銷Asahi啤酒與優質威士忌之MayBev私人有限公司，預料2015年進一步貢獻成長。新一年將持續2014年措施，適當品牌、價格與謹慎成本管理促進需求，有信心股東價值可保永續。除在馬新市場持續強化皇帽品牌，也擴大優質組合品牌之成長，斯里蘭卡營運表現令人滿意。
商業策略持續，投資與進一步開發皇帽銷售，進一步促進Royal Stout和SKOL，優質品牌如Asahi Super Dry，Somersby Ciders and Kronenbourg 1664的銷售與分銷；同時聚焦促使啤酒成為市場內新鮮度最佳。時刻尋求併購契機，惟2015年未有具體計劃。
個人希望有更多時間與家庭、客戶和營運之社區相處，寄望更頻密投身羽球與高爾夫球運動。相信公司在艱巨景況仍強穩靈活表現佳，未來幾年繼續成長。
啤酒業依賴外在環境，特別希望政府能支持其未來成長；啤酒增稅、貨幣穩定與違禁啤酒充斥市場尤讓人擔憂。大馬經濟繁榮、對外資開放、人民和諧容忍深受外國景仰，深切希望大馬可克服當前挑戰！
英美煙草在2014年首3季交出堅穩表現，特別是在商業環境日益競爭之中。2014年11月的通膨壓力及高增長的稅務，進一步擠壓消費者的可支配收入，使合法香煙市場萎縮。
國內合法及免稅產品銷量減少7.3%，我們的定價配合推行額外生產力節省，有助緩和一部份的壓力，使至今為止的表現持續穩健。
非法走私香煙交易持續打擊合法香煙的未來。惟我們感到非常鼓舞進行凌厲持續的執法行動，特別是大馬皇家關稅局的行動，在今年首季開始在零售層面解決非法香煙的交易活動。
這些執法行動證明是有效的，使非法走私香煙交易活動減少6.6%，即從2013年杪創下的38.9%的紀錄高峰，下跌至32.3%。這也是大馬市場在過去20年來，非法走私香煙市占率最大的跌幅。
我們的永續表現，主要是通過交出高素質消費者相關產品組合所達致。
大馬經濟成長預料介於5%至5.5%，國內需求繼續是成長引擎。2015年4月1日開始推行消費稅，以及進一步削減津貼所帶來的挑戰，惟政府也推行數項措施，以減輕人民可支出收入負擔，令人感到鼓舞。
英美煙草（馬）在本地業務的策略及優先將保持不變，即投資在足以加強公司產品組合，及進一步推動成本效率，以交出股東價值。在海外業務方面，公司首要專注持續改善公司的製造程序及在區域保持競爭力。
目前為止，英美煙草（馬）並沒有預見要進行任何的併購活動。
英美煙草（馬）將持續以永續及負責任態度推動公司的業務策略。我希望公司所付出的努力，將不會受到今年面對的諸多挑戰太大的衝擊。
我們將持續寄托在大馬百年來所建立起來的韌力，即獲得一個強勁消費者相關產品組合所支撐、及獲得雇員、商業合作伙伴、以及相關利益關係者的持續支持，以期渡過2015年的各項挑戰，以為股東交出另一年的良好成績。
2015年財政預算案的擬定，主要确保經濟成長更強勁，及減少財政赤字，與此同時，也照顧人民的福祉，這是令人感到欣慰。通過這些，我希望大馬在環球及區域市場加強它的地位，繼續在全球經濟挑戰中保持穩健的韌力。
拉法基馬2013年推展全球願景“建立更美好城市”，為大馬未來發展作出貢獻。自此展開創新開發方案，迎合國內建築業需求，也開展多項措施提昇建築水平和促進永續建築。
2014年3月，尖端、環保的預拌水泥廠在隆市陳秀蓮路推展，主旨是推展永續建築，全面翻新和回收混凝土，克服廢棄和過剩水泥，減少浪費。具有最佳生產標準，它是在密封、減塵、減聲環境生產。6月，推展東南亞首個建築發展試驗室（CDL），標示在大馬建立最佳城市之承擔。
該試驗室為世界第五個，座落在八打靈策略地點，透過採納創新方案促進建築效率。全球總部每年投入5億令吉在法國里昂用於研發，更快採納相關方案迎合國內建築需求。
拉法基馬兩年來與建築發展局（CIDB）簽署備忘錄，為建築人員提供培訓，提高建築水平和促進業界健康與安全，已培訓1千名泥水匠。健康與安全是集團核心價值，2014年更與大馬道路安全研究局（MIROS）簽備忘錄，分享其卡車車隊衛星定位系統之資訊，研發與改善交通安全。
拉法基馬是被納入馬交易所FTSE 4 GOOD之24間公司之一，該指數由馬交易所於12月22日推展，表彰在環保、社會與監管有良好表現的公司；這也證明集團在建立更佳城市和永續發展的投入程度。
受施工發展與基建計劃驅動，我們對建築業前景樂觀；消費稅會衝擊產業市場，不過會很快正常化。政府承擔於2016年建百萬間可負擔房屋利惠首購族，相信對住宅建築成長作貢獻；2015年財政預算案公佈的斥資230億令吉從士拉央至布城之第二捷運（56公里）和其他大道計劃，料持續驅動建築業。
油價下跌使政府收緊發展開銷，惟基於很多計劃為公私合營，衝擊有限。集團的業務料保持強勁，現有擴張計劃迎合國內對建材的需求，並受創新投資所支援。
全球經濟發展格局不一，創新卻是全球業務的主要驅動力，全球總部每年斥資5億令吉在法國里昂進行研發。2014年在馬創立的CDL標示拉法基馬在大馬以競爭優勢建立最佳城市之承擔，同時持續改善營運效率，以最低成本在營運中輸出最大生產力、可靠性與效益。
我們將進一步強化大馬實現2020高收入國的宏願，發展商、繪測師、工程師、承包商、方案提供者有必要緊密合作，開發新思維、方案和系統以發展建築業。
（星洲日報／投資致富‧焦點策劃‧文：張啟華）
Brewery stocks rally to record highs
The two brewery stocks — Guinness Anchor Bhd and Carlsberg Brewery (M) Bhd — continue to be the favourites among investors. Shares for both companies have gained some 10% to 13% year-to-date, far outperforming the benchmark FBM KLCI, which declined 3% over the same period.
This is likely due in part to their relative earnings resilience as well as strong cash flow and steady dividend income stream — attractive traits amid prevailing uncertainties.
Volume demand for the malt liquor market has been trending steadily higher over the past few years on the back of rising domestic consumption and absence of government tax increases, which has also allowed the brewers to inch selling prices higher to offset rising costs.
This and economies of scale have translated into better operating margins for the two brewery companies — and stronger earnings. This trend is expected to remain intact in the current year with demand expected to expand around the mid-single digit.
Both Guinness and Carlsberg reported earnings results for the fourth quarter of 2012 (4Q12) that were broadly in line with expectations, and supportive of growth going forward.
Better margins on economies of scale and product mix
Guinness’ turnover for the last quarter (the second quarter for its financial year ending June 2013 [2QFY13]) was down 8.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM429.4 million. This was due to the fact that the Chinese New Year fell in the second week of February this year instead of January, which more than offset the additional nine days of sales brought forward from 1QFY13 as a result of the company’s information technology (IT) system migration exercise.
As such, the company indicated much stronger than usual sales in 3QFY13, bolstered by the spillover sales from the Chinese New Year period. Positively, despite the drop in revenue, net profit increased slightly to RM66.2 million in 2QFY13, from RM65.8 million in the previous corresponding quarter. This was attributed to a combination of higher pricing, better product mix and cost management.
We forecast net profit to total RM228 million for the full FY13. This implies that Guinness’ shares are now trading at roughly 24.8 times our earnings estimate at the prevailing price of RM18.70.
Its valuations are notably higher than the average price-to-earnings ratio (PER) for the broader market, estimated at around 15 to 16 times currently. As such, further upside gain from here on could be limited, at least in the near to medium term.
Looking further ahead, its share price should rise gradually to reflect the growth in earnings going into the next financial year come July 2013. We forecast net profit will grow roughly 10% to RM250 million in FY14, which translates into a PER of about 22.6 times.
Shareholders should continue to earn fairly decent yields. The company intends to distribute some 90% to 95% of annual earnings back to shareholders. The high payout ratio is supported by steady cash flow from operations and the strong balance sheet.
Guinness had net debt totalling just about RM166 million at end-December 2012. We estimate dividends to be 72 sen per share for FY13 and 79 sen for FY14, which translates into fairly decent net yields of 3.8% to 4.2% at the current share price.
Double digit total returns from growth and yield
A similar pace of earnings growth is expected for Carlsberg, driven by both domestic sales as well as sales in Singapore. The company reported turnover growth of 6.4% to RM1.58 billion in 2012 while net profit increased by an outsized 15% to RM191.6 million. As with Guinness, the margin expansion was due to a combination of higher selling prices, better product mix and improved processes. For instance, Carlsberg is focusing on building the premium brands in its portfolio, which currently account for about 20% of total sales. The segment carries better profit margins, which were bolstered further by the company’s move to produce two of the imported brands — Asahi and Kronenbourg — locally, thus saving on import duties, transport and handling costs.
Since acquiring the Singapore operations in the fourth quarter of 2009, capital expenditure has been relatively small. This and strong cash from operations have, in turn, translated into a high payout ratio, which averaged a shade higher than 100% in the past three years.
In view of its net cash of RM52.7 million at end-2012, barring any major acquisition, we expect the company to continue paying out all of its annual profits. Dividends are estimated to be 69 sen per share for the current year. That would earn shareholders a net yield of 5%. At the current price of RM13.80, the stock is trading at slightly lower valuations than Guinness, perhaps attributed, in part, to its higher market share (estimated at about 59%).
Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
Volume demand for the malt liquor market has been trending steadily higher over the past few years on the back of rising domestic consumption and absence of government tax increases, which has also allowed the brewers to inch selling prices higher to offset rising costs.
This and economies of scale have translated into better operating margins for the two brewery companies — and stronger earnings. This trend is expected to remain intact in the current year with demand expected to expand around the mid-single digit.
Both Guinness and Carlsberg reported earnings results for the fourth quarter of 2012 (4Q12) that were broadly in line with expectations, and supportive of growth going forward.
Better margins on economies of scale and product mix
Guinness’ turnover for the last quarter (the second quarter for its financial year ending June 2013 [2QFY13]) was down 8.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM429.4 million. This was due to the fact that the Chinese New Year fell in the second week of February this year instead of January, which more than offset the additional nine days of sales brought forward from 1QFY13 as a result of the company’s information technology (IT) system migration exercise.
As such, the company indicated much stronger than usual sales in 3QFY13, bolstered by the spillover sales from the Chinese New Year period. Positively, despite the drop in revenue, net profit increased slightly to RM66.2 million in 2QFY13, from RM65.8 million in the previous corresponding quarter. This was attributed to a combination of higher pricing, better product mix and cost management.
We forecast net profit to total RM228 million for the full FY13. This implies that Guinness’ shares are now trading at roughly 24.8 times our earnings estimate at the prevailing price of RM18.70.
Its valuations are notably higher than the average price-to-earnings ratio (PER) for the broader market, estimated at around 15 to 16 times currently. As such, further upside gain from here on could be limited, at least in the near to medium term.
Looking further ahead, its share price should rise gradually to reflect the growth in earnings going into the next financial year come July 2013. We forecast net profit will grow roughly 10% to RM250 million in FY14, which translates into a PER of about 22.6 times.
Shareholders should continue to earn fairly decent yields. The company intends to distribute some 90% to 95% of annual earnings back to shareholders. The high payout ratio is supported by steady cash flow from operations and the strong balance sheet.
Guinness had net debt totalling just about RM166 million at end-December 2012. We estimate dividends to be 72 sen per share for FY13 and 79 sen for FY14, which translates into fairly decent net yields of 3.8% to 4.2% at the current share price.
Double digit total returns from growth and yield
A similar pace of earnings growth is expected for Carlsberg, driven by both domestic sales as well as sales in Singapore. The company reported turnover growth of 6.4% to RM1.58 billion in 2012 while net profit increased by an outsized 15% to RM191.6 million. As with Guinness, the margin expansion was due to a combination of higher selling prices, better product mix and improved processes. For instance, Carlsberg is focusing on building the premium brands in its portfolio, which currently account for about 20% of total sales. The segment carries better profit margins, which were bolstered further by the company’s move to produce two of the imported brands — Asahi and Kronenbourg — locally, thus saving on import duties, transport and handling costs.
Since acquiring the Singapore operations in the fourth quarter of 2009, capital expenditure has been relatively small. This and strong cash from operations have, in turn, translated into a high payout ratio, which averaged a shade higher than 100% in the past three years.
In view of its net cash of RM52.7 million at end-2012, barring any major acquisition, we expect the company to continue paying out all of its annual profits. Dividends are estimated to be 69 sen per share for the current year. That would earn shareholders a net yield of 5%. At the current price of RM13.80, the stock is trading at slightly lower valuations than Guinness, perhaps attributed, in part, to its higher market share (estimated at about 59%).
Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
Keeping the fine performance going for Guniness Anchor
ANS Essaadi, who was recently appointed Guinness Anchor Bhd (GAB)new managing director, knows he has a huge task ahead of him.
Not only does he need to ensure that the company maintains its position as the country's leading brewery by market share, Essaadi knows he has to ensure GAB's decade-long-plus earnings continue on its upward trajectory.
For the past 11 years, GAB has been recording consecutive revenue, volume and profit growth over half of which was spearheaded by former managing director, Charles Ireland.
Essaadi, who has been in the country for about two months already, looks calm as he gears up to take over the reigns from Ireland.
“I admit I've taken over a unique business and I know I do have huge shoes to fill,” he tells StarBizWeek. Essaadi took over as GAB managing director on March 1.
Essaadi attributes GAB's 11 years of growth to the company having a “winning mentality.”
“It's a legacy that I'm taking over!”
Essaadi has been with the Heineken Group for over 20 years and has served in various capacities across several different business units and regions around the world.
He was most recently the general manager of Sirocco, Heineken Region Africa & Middle East a joint venture between Heineken and Emirates in the Gulf region.
On his taking over operations in Malaysia, he is quick to admit that the business will not be without its challenges.
“There will always be challenges, but then that's what makes for a fun working environment. Otherwise it will be a boring marketplace,” Essaadi says.
Financial momentum
GAB recorded a 1.6% net profit growth to RM122.99mil for the first six-month period ended Dec 31, 2012. In the corresponding period last year, it recorded RM121.03mil in net profit.
Revenue in the first half of the year slipped to RM821.73mil from RM912.95mil in the previous corresponding period.
For its second quarter, the company recorded a net profit of RM66.16mil compared with RM65.82mil a year earlier. GAB registered 8.3% lower revenue of RM429.4mil from RM468.3mil a year ago in its second quarter.
In its notes accompanying its financial results to Bursa Malaysia last month, the company said it expected the Malaysian economy to remain stable and domestic demand to remain robust.
“Despite increasingly competitive market environment, the group believes it has the right strategies, network and resources to achieve sustainable growth in the current financial year.”
It added that the investment in information technology systems, once embedded, would give GAB a strategic competitive advantage.
Analysts covering the stock say the brewery's earnings were within expectations.
Maybank Investment Bank Research in its report following the company's results said GAB's first half 2013 net profit was in line with its earnings forecast.
Essaadi the new man at GAB’s helm
“Net profit was sustained by better product and channel mix along with improved cost controls, compensating for a 10% year-on-year drop in sales.
“We understand the weaker sales were due to sales only captured in January (GAB's third quarter) due to the later Chinese New Year (February 2013 vs January 2012); as well as a further decline in duty-free volume (10% of volume vs 20% in 2012).”
The research house also said earnings were lower due to overall product sales softness.
CIMB Research, in its report, said it was “scaling back” its sales forecasts but was raising margins for a better product and channel mix.
“We are not perturbed by the 10% year-on-year decline in its first half revenue as it resulted from the timing of CNY, which was three weeks later this year compared with last year.
“GAB indicated that January 2013 sales were 80% higher year-on-year. However, since revenue for the seven months to January 2013 were only up slightly, we have cut our financial year 2013 sales growth forecast from 5% to 4%.”
The research house notes that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation margins jumped from 19.2% in the first half of 2012 to 22.6% in the first half of 2013, reflecting a better product mix due to increased sales of premium beer like Heineken compared with mainstream beer such as Tiger.
“A better channel mix also contributed to higher margins as beer sold in bottles costs less than canned beer,” said CIMB.
It adds that it expects the company's premier beer brand, Heineken, to lead GAB's near-term sales growth, especially after changes to its bottle in July 2012.
“This will benefit margins as selling prices for premium beer like Heineken are 15% higher than for mainstream beer like Tiger. Currently, Heineken makes up 10% of sales.
Following a briefing session with GAB recently, CIMB says the beer company still expects to outperform the malt liquor market in its current financial year, even though it is already the market leader with some 60% market share.
“GAB believes any excise tax increase would be moderate. There is not much scope for a big increase since Malaysians already pay the second highest excise duty in the world after Norway. There is no certainty that GAB will raise its selling prices this year as management is taking a wait-and-see approach.”
In sync with the economy
Essaadi says he is optimistic about the company's prospects for the remainder of its financial year. For a start, he is thankful the Government has not raised excise duties for the past seven years.
“Our excise duties are quite high and I'm glad there has been no increase in the past seven years. But there are other challenges, like competition we get from grey importers and traders who are giving us unfair competition.
“We're not crying about it but it's a challenge and we need to find ways to remain competitive,” he says.
Still, the biggest challenge, says Essaadi, is to continue to grow the business.
“What we need to do is to keep growing. We've already achieved 11 consecutive years of growth. Now the challenge will be to go into a 12th, 13th and more years of growth,” he says.
Ireland seems cautiously optimistic about the prospects for GAB for the remainder of its current financial year.
In the near term, he believes that the impending general election has softened the beer market a little.
“The impending general election is making people a little bit more careful with their spending,” Ireland says, adding that anticipation of the general election was creating ambiguity in the marketplace.
“The stock market doesn't like ambiguity and people don't like ambiguity,” he says.
Ireland believes that consumers are holding back their spending a little bit as they await the outcome of the general election.
“People are keeping their hands in their pockets a little bit,” he says.
Ireland feels that the recent bad Malaysian weather has also not helped.
“Other factors that may have contributed to softer sales include the dreadful weather. It has been pouring and there has been flash floods everywhere. Because of this, people are not in pubs drinking when they are stuck in traffic jams. So that has affected the business as well.”
On the outlook of the local malt liquor market, Ireland says this segment correlates closely with the performance of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).
“It's true that the malt liquor market shadows GDP quite closely and the latest figures have been quite solid.”
According to reports, Malaysia's economy recorded a spectacular performance in the last quarter of 2012, growing 6.4%. This is the highest quarterly growth in 2 years and was boosted by the manufacturing and construction sectors.
This supported the overall economic growth for 2012 that expanded to 5.6% compared to 5.1% in 2011.
Based on reports, all sectors registered positive growth with the services, manufacturing and construction sectors continuing to be the key drivers in the supply side.
According to Bank Negara, there are emerging signs of improvements in the global economy where the latest economic indicators also suggest further stabilisation in growth performance in Asia.
“GDP growth in the region is also quite solid,” says Ireland, who is optimistic about the local beer market for the rest of this year.
He says the various ongoing Economic Transformation Programme projects currently are goods signs that the Malaysian economy is in good shape.
“All (the projects) that's going on is great and the Malaysian economy is solid. But we do believe things will pick up further after the elections and people will start spending a bit more.”
Essaadi is also optimistic, saying that GAB will drive growth and boost earnings through various promotional campaigns.
“Looking at our full promotional calendar, we will be leveraging our brand through various platforms, such as sports and music,” he says, without disclosing what the company's various campaigns will comprise.
“There's a lot of anticipation. We're ramping up our activities to make sure we come out of the year in a sustainable and positive way.”
Banking on corporate responsibility (CR)
It is no surprise that GAB invests substantially in CR-related activities. The brewery has won multiple accolades for its push for social responsibility.
Ireland says investing in CR has various benefits.
“A few years ago, we looked at how we wanted to move the company forward and looked at CR as one way of doing that. We felt there was both a business and responsibility benefit. Part of the reason our brands are popular with people is because we strive to do the right thing with our brands, to be socially responsible.
“Furthermore, it's also important to be viewed as a socially responsible company. When we interview prospective employees, being socially responsible is on the list of why people want to join organisations these days.”
The Star Biz
Saturday March 9, 2013
Tag :
GAB
2012 5大投资主题
在大选即将来临加上强调企业基本面的情况下，分析员认为投资者应该把握5大投资主题。
这个5大投资主题，分别是：
1）建筑合约加速颁发；
2）油气业资本开销持续；
3）啤酒业者料资本回退；
4）小型消费股有看头；
5）经济转型执行方案带动银行业。
1）建筑合约加速颁发；
2）油气业资本开销持续；
3）啤酒业者料资本回退；
4）小型消费股有看头；
5）经济转型执行方案带动银行业。
Positive outlook for brewers
Investor confidence in the two local listed brewery stocks, Guinness Anchor Bhd (GAB) (RM12.86) and Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd (RM10.86), has been quite strong. Both stocks have fared well over the past few months. And expectations for better than market average returns, including yields, appear upbeat.
The positive expectations are predicated partly on the relative resilience and continued growth in domestic consumption amid a weaker external environment. The job market is still robust, while the recent pay hike for civil servants bodes well for overall income growth prospects.
Mid-single digit industry growth expected
Demand for malt and liquor products has been on an uptrend. Industry volume sales are expected to expand in the mid-single digit range this year. Spared from tax increases for the past few years, the last hike was back in September 2005, brewers have been able to gradually raise selling prices to offset rising costs. Case in point, the companies have indicated a 3% to 4% price increase this month, similar in quantum to the hike this time last year, to pass on higher raw material such as malt costs.
The higher volume sales and selling prices have in turn enabled both GAB and Carlsberg to improve their margins and earnings over the past few years. This is expected to remain the case going forward.
Volume sales and price increases underpin earnings expansion
GAB’s net profit grew from RM126 million in FY08 ended June to over RM181 million in FY11, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 13% per year. In addition to rising demand, growth was driven by steady market share gains by the company’s stable of brand names, which include Tiger beer, Guinness stout and Heineken beer. GAB is estimated to have roughly 60% share of the local beer and stout market currently, up from roughly 46% a decade ago.
For the first half of the current financial year, net profit was up 17% y-o-y to RM121 million. This was on the back of 16% turnover growth that was boosted by an early Chinese New Year. Taking into account a slower 2HFY12, we estimate net profit to total roughly RM201 million, up 11% from FY11.
Looking slightly further ahead, we forecast the company’s net profit to expand to RM219 million in FY13. At the current price of RM12.86, the stock is trading at roughly 18.5 times our annualised earnings for 2012 and 17 times for 2013.
The continued earnings growth will support GAB’s dividend stream. Indeed, companies, especially those with expectations of steady cash flow from operations, appear increasingly open to raising their cash distributions to shareholders and taking on more debt, in part to take advantage of the prevailing low interest rate environment.
GAB’s net yield estimated at 9.3% for FY12 and 5.1% FY13
With a mounting cash pile, GAB made a special dividend payout of 60 sen per share in January and an interim dividend of 10 sen per share last month. By comparison, dividends totalled 54 sen per share for the whole of FY11. We expect a final dividend of about 50 sen per share, assuming a 90% profit payout ratio for FY12 (excluding the special dividend). Thus, dividends are estimated to total some RM1.20 per share, which would earn shareholders a net yield of 9.3% at the current share price.
The company had net cash of RM46 million as at end-2011 before the special and interim dividend payments, which would take it into a net debt position currently. Nevertheless, we expect GAB to revert to a net cash position by end-FY12. Assuming a similar payout ratio going forward, dividends are estimated at some 65 sen per share in FY13, which would give shareholders a net yield of 5.1%.
While GAB has had the upper hand in terms of gaining market share domestically, Carlsberg has expanded its operations base to include the Singapore market. Carlsberg’s net profit expanded at an even stronger CAGR of nearly 30% between 2008 and 2011, thanks to the earnings boost and operational synergies from Carlsberg Singapore, which was acquired in 4Q09. Net profit grew from RM76 million in 2008 to RM166 million in 2011.
We estimate net profit at RM171.9 million for the current year to increase further to RM187.5 million in FY13. Based on our earnings forecast, the stock is now trading at a price-earnings ratio of 19.5 for 2012 and 17.8 for 2013.
Carlsberg banks on premium beer to drive growth
The company expects sales from Singapore, which accounted for roughly a quarter of total sales last year, to expand at double the pace of the low single digit growth estimated for the domestic market.
The other key growth driver is the premium beer market, where it carries a large portfolio of brand names to cater for different consumer segments. Carlsberg estimates its share of this faster growing segment at about 16% at the moment. It targets to raise this to 20% by end-2012 and 50% over the longer term.
The company started brewing the Asahi Super Dry beer late last year and intends to produce two other brands, Kronenbourg 1664 and Kronenbourg Blanc, later this year. The locally produced beer will result in additional cost savings, including on logistics and import duty and better margins.
In addition to earnings growth, we expect Carlsberg to maintain a high dividend payout ratio. The company had net cash totalling RM50 million as at end-2011. Net dividends totalled 43.5 sen per share in 2010 and 54.9 sen in 2011, equivalent to 100% to 102% of profit. Assuming a 100% payout going forward, net dividends are estimated at 55.8 sen per share in 2012 and 60.9 sen in 2013. That translates into net yields of 5.1% and 5.6% for the two years at the current price of RM10.86.
Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, April 13, 2012.
The positive expectations are predicated partly on the relative resilience and continued growth in domestic consumption amid a weaker external environment. The job market is still robust, while the recent pay hike for civil servants bodes well for overall income growth prospects.
Mid-single digit industry growth expected
Demand for malt and liquor products has been on an uptrend. Industry volume sales are expected to expand in the mid-single digit range this year. Spared from tax increases for the past few years, the last hike was back in September 2005, brewers have been able to gradually raise selling prices to offset rising costs. Case in point, the companies have indicated a 3% to 4% price increase this month, similar in quantum to the hike this time last year, to pass on higher raw material such as malt costs.
The higher volume sales and selling prices have in turn enabled both GAB and Carlsberg to improve their margins and earnings over the past few years. This is expected to remain the case going forward.
Volume sales and price increases underpin earnings expansion
GAB’s net profit grew from RM126 million in FY08 ended June to over RM181 million in FY11, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 13% per year. In addition to rising demand, growth was driven by steady market share gains by the company’s stable of brand names, which include Tiger beer, Guinness stout and Heineken beer. GAB is estimated to have roughly 60% share of the local beer and stout market currently, up from roughly 46% a decade ago.
For the first half of the current financial year, net profit was up 17% y-o-y to RM121 million. This was on the back of 16% turnover growth that was boosted by an early Chinese New Year. Taking into account a slower 2HFY12, we estimate net profit to total roughly RM201 million, up 11% from FY11.
Looking slightly further ahead, we forecast the company’s net profit to expand to RM219 million in FY13. At the current price of RM12.86, the stock is trading at roughly 18.5 times our annualised earnings for 2012 and 17 times for 2013.
The continued earnings growth will support GAB’s dividend stream. Indeed, companies, especially those with expectations of steady cash flow from operations, appear increasingly open to raising their cash distributions to shareholders and taking on more debt, in part to take advantage of the prevailing low interest rate environment.
GAB’s net yield estimated at 9.3% for FY12 and 5.1% FY13
With a mounting cash pile, GAB made a special dividend payout of 60 sen per share in January and an interim dividend of 10 sen per share last month. By comparison, dividends totalled 54 sen per share for the whole of FY11. We expect a final dividend of about 50 sen per share, assuming a 90% profit payout ratio for FY12 (excluding the special dividend). Thus, dividends are estimated to total some RM1.20 per share, which would earn shareholders a net yield of 9.3% at the current share price.
The company had net cash of RM46 million as at end-2011 before the special and interim dividend payments, which would take it into a net debt position currently. Nevertheless, we expect GAB to revert to a net cash position by end-FY12. Assuming a similar payout ratio going forward, dividends are estimated at some 65 sen per share in FY13, which would give shareholders a net yield of 5.1%.
While GAB has had the upper hand in terms of gaining market share domestically, Carlsberg has expanded its operations base to include the Singapore market. Carlsberg’s net profit expanded at an even stronger CAGR of nearly 30% between 2008 and 2011, thanks to the earnings boost and operational synergies from Carlsberg Singapore, which was acquired in 4Q09. Net profit grew from RM76 million in 2008 to RM166 million in 2011.
We estimate net profit at RM171.9 million for the current year to increase further to RM187.5 million in FY13. Based on our earnings forecast, the stock is now trading at a price-earnings ratio of 19.5 for 2012 and 17.8 for 2013.
Carlsberg banks on premium beer to drive growth
The company expects sales from Singapore, which accounted for roughly a quarter of total sales last year, to expand at double the pace of the low single digit growth estimated for the domestic market.
The other key growth driver is the premium beer market, where it carries a large portfolio of brand names to cater for different consumer segments. Carlsberg estimates its share of this faster growing segment at about 16% at the moment. It targets to raise this to 20% by end-2012 and 50% over the longer term.
The company started brewing the Asahi Super Dry beer late last year and intends to produce two other brands, Kronenbourg 1664 and Kronenbourg Blanc, later this year. The locally produced beer will result in additional cost savings, including on logistics and import duty and better margins.
In addition to earnings growth, we expect Carlsberg to maintain a high dividend payout ratio. The company had net cash totalling RM50 million as at end-2011. Net dividends totalled 43.5 sen per share in 2010 and 54.9 sen in 2011, equivalent to 100% to 102% of profit. Assuming a 100% payout going forward, net dividends are estimated at 55.8 sen per share in 2012 and 60.9 sen in 2013. That translates into net yields of 5.1% and 5.6% for the two years at the current price of RM10.86.
Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, April 13, 2012.
Investors eagerly awaiting big dividends
PETALING JAYA: With the barrage of results coming in, investors chasing for more returns and yields are still on the lookout for that big one, as hints of more bumper dividends allure in the face of a volatile market rocked by external headwinds.
The latest will be the move by Maxis Bhd, which had recently secured approval from the authorities for the proposed 10-year sukuk issuance amounting to RM2.45bil.
Sources contacted by StarBiz recently confirmed that Maxis' board of directors would discuss the possibility of declaring a special dividend payout at its routine directors meeting soon.
The telecommunications sector as a whole is also seeing some activity with Telekom Malaysia Bhd announcing a total cash distribution of RM1.42bil or 39.8 sen per share, while Axiata Group Bhd also raised its payout ratio from 30% to 60%, having proposed a bumper dividend of 19 sen per share.
OSK Research in a report said the bumper payout indicated Axiata's willingness to meet investors' expectations of rising dividends as it was rapidly building up cash, thanks to the strong operational momentum across few operating companies.
Analysts believe that there is some level of interest and speculation that other high cash-flow counters dealing in the buoyant consumer market may also have plans to reward their shareholders.
With a strong and stable free cashflow, along with minimal gearing, these financially-sound companies could declare a special dividend.
Last Friday, Dutch Lady Milk Industries Bhd announced a dividend of 50 sen in addition of a special dividend of 80 sen for its financial year ending March 31, 2012.
UOB Kay Hian's head of research Vincent Khoo said the key point about these companies was that they generated a very steady income, while the amount of capital expenditure to expand their businesses was quite modest, leaving a substantial cash pile for utilisation.
“While in the thriving brewery sector, given that Guinness Anchor Bhd (GAB) announced a surprise dividend last year, we reckon Carlsberg (Brewery Malaysia Bhd) may also follow suit by declaring a special dividend,” Khoo said on Friday before the results were released.
Subsequently, after announcing its results, Carlsberg declared a total special dividend payout of 67.5 sen, representing a 7.1% return over its last closing price.
A local bank-backed analyst also reckoned that GAB might declare another special dividend as it had only drawn down RM150mil from its RM500mil medium-term notes.
Khoo is also quite positive on Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd (BToto) as the company has just reached a debt neutral level, with the company still committed to its minimum 75% net payout dividend policy.
The numbers forecast operator is expected to release its financial numbers on March 15.
OSK Research said BToto's relatively stable and defensive earnings, as well as strong likelihood for dividends to surprise on the upside, made the stock an ideal investment under the current volatile environment, in which the broader market's earnings pace might disappoint on the downside.
Meanwhile, OSK head of research Chris Eng advised investors not to jump into a company because of its dividends, and instead should focus on the growth potential of the company.
“Dividends are just an added benefit, we are neutral on stocks like Maxis and DiGi, as these companies have limited upside, with no strong growth story,” he said, adding that with the run-up in prices of some selected large capitalised counters, many other smaller counters were still attractive with a good return for dividends.
Meanwhile, another analyst noted that investors could expect a substantial bumper dividend if Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia Bhd decided to undergo some capital management exercise.
“Panasonic is standing at a very strong cash position as well, representing about 40% of its market capitalisation,” he said.
As at Dec 31, 2011, Panasonic had cash and cash equivalents of RM449.19mil, which works out to RM7.49 per share with no current borrowings.
For 2011, Panasonic paid net dividends of RM66.06mil, or RM1.09 per share, equivalent to 80% of its net profit in that year.
Similarly as at end-September 2011, JT International Bhd (JTI) had RM189.94mil in cash translating to 72 sen per share with no borrowings.
For 2010, JTI paid net dividends amounting to 22.5 sen per share.
Another analyst also noted that with the stronger earnings seen in the financial sector, banks like Alliance Financial Group Bhd and CIMB Bank Bhd might see a dividend upside as well.
