PETALING JAYA: A deal may be brewing at Genting Plantations Bhd , whose stock is just off its all-time high, industry sources said. The shares have risen by some 10.5% year-to-date and closed yesterday up 10 sen, or 1%, at RM9.51. It hit a record high of RM9.65 on Jan 26.

“One can’t rule out a potential sale of the plantations division by the Genting group. “While it is cashflow producing, it isn’t exactly their core business,” a banking source said. But at its current price, Genting Plantations has a market capitalisation of some RM7.18bil, which makes it an expensive acquisition target by any party. It is trading at an estimated price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times for the 2012 financial year, somewhat higher than its peers United Plantations Bhd (12 times), and Sime Darby Bhd (15 times), but cheaper than IOI Corp Bhd ’s 17 times.

Another positive factor for Genting Plantations, an analyst said, was its bustling Johor Premium Outlets (JPO).
The mall, which sells off-season luxury items at a discount, is the only Premium Outlet in South-East Asia, while 58 others are in countries such as the United States, Japan and South Korea. Its stable of brands include Armani, Burberry, Canali, Coach, Ermenegildo Zegna, Guess, Michael Kors, Ralph Lauren and Salvatore Ferragamo.

JPO is a 50:50 joint venture between Genting Plantations, a Genting Bhd subsidiary, and Premium Outlets, the retail outlet division of Simon Property Group Inc. Under the second phase of its development, Genting plans to spend RM100mil to increase the number of stores to 130 from the present 70.
The company is also expected to invest up to RM1bil to develop the area, including constructing a 2,000-room hotel and a water theme park and a meeting, incentive, conference and exhibition centre. Genting Plantations could not be reached for comment.

Meanwhile, its parent Genting slid 16 sen, or 1.6%, to RM10.30. Both Genting and Genting Malaysia Bhd have seen some selldown in their stock after the Florida legislature delayed voting on a bill to expand casino gambling activities in the state till next year.
The decision put a dent in Genting’s plans for its US$3.8bil Resorts World Miami.

（吉隆坡3日訊）今年種植領域獲得5大利好因素支撐，使分析員將種植領域評級調升至中和，預料2012年原棕油平均價格維持每公吨3千令吉水平，惟去年2月創下的3千800令吉高峰，將難以突破。肯納格研究指出，上述5大利好包括棕油產量看跌、亞洲原棕油市場需求穩健、原棕油庫存及使用比例緊縮、大豆油價格高企，以及拉尼娜氣候可能延長等，將為2012年的原棕油價格提供支撐。

去年全球原棕油產量增9.4% 今年料放緩至4.2%
2011年全球原棕油產量按年強勁成長9.4%之後，預料2012年成長率將放緩至4.2%，這主要是經過一年強勁成長，油棕樹在接下來的一年裡需要“休息”，料使今年產量成長放緩到210萬公吨至5千230萬公吨。世界食油雜誌預測，今年印尼原棕油產量按年成長增至6.3%，反觀大馬則僅1.5%。

肯納格指出，過去10個月裡（2011年3月至2011年12月），大馬的鮮果串回酬复甦出奇強勁，使原棕油產量增長介於2%至26%之間。過去10年紀錄顯示，原棕油按年成長僅能持續7至13個月。因此，假設這次的成長週期達到最長的13個月，預料原棕油產量下跌週期將從2012年4月開始。估計2011年10月至2012年9月間的全球原棕油消費量按年增長6.3%或300萬公吨，至5千120萬公吨水平。若氣候沒有出現明顯變化，5千150萬公吨的原棕油供應將足夠應付需求。

2012年的原棕油價格料可在2千800令吉水平獲支撐，不過，將不太可能突破2011年2月份創下的3千800令吉高峰。2011年，印尼原棕油消費量達到609萬公吨，超越中國的606萬公吨。預料此趨勢將延續至2012年，因印尼原棕油按年使用量料可成長12.5%，為亞洲之最，比較中國市場成長為9.3%，以及印度成長則為4.4%。
這主要是印尼2億4千萬人口對食品需求有增無減，以及主要是供出口的生物柴油生產的需求。

在2011年10月至2012年9月期間，預料全球的原棕油庫存對使用比例將下跌15.7%，主要是6.3%的需求成長，超越供應成長4.2%。世界食油雜誌資料顯示，原棕油的2011年第三季及2011年第四季的消費量分別達到1千270萬公吨及1千280萬公吨，按年成長率為8.2%，特別是大豆油及菜子油的供應短缺所致。阿根廷及巴西氣候亁旱，使本季的大豆收成情況不明朗，它們佔全球大豆油出口的69%，使大豆油價格獲得支撐。由於原棕油被視為大豆油替代品，一旦南美洲大豆歉收，預料原棕油的價格也會隨著走高。

今年1月的南美洲雨量已降至平均水平，並且僅有特定地區下雨。這使世界食油雜誌將阿根廷的大豆供應削減200萬公吨，至4千650萬公吨，以及巴西的供應也減少200萬公吨至7千萬公吨，它可能會在今年2月份的期刊進一步削減供應量預測，這有助間接支撐原棕油價格。拉尼娜氣候轉弱，不過，時間卻延長。美國氣象預測中心預料拉尼娜將持續至2012年春天或是2012年第二季。一旦拉尼娜氣候延長，預料過量雨水將減少大馬及印尼的鮮果串產量，從而推高原棕油價格。
森那美成首選


肯納格維持種植領域“中和”評級，在棕油價適度成長之際，看好棕油串成長表現亮眼的公司，以及業務成長主要來自非種植業務的公司。肯納格的大資本種植股首選為森那美（SIME，4197，主板貿服組），評級從“市場表現”調升至“超越市場”，目標價10令吉85仙。IOI集團（IOICORP，1961，主板種植組）則升至“市場表現”評級，目標價5令吉55仙。

中資本種植股首選為大安控股（TAANN，5012，主板工業產品組），特別是其2012年財政年的鮮果串產量成長達到30%標青表現，獲得“超越市場”評級，目標價7令吉90仙。怡保種植（IJMPLNT，2216，主板種植組）獲得“市場表現”評級，目標價3令吉25仙。吉隆坡甲洞（KLK，2445，主板種植組）則是“落後大市”評級，目標價21令吉50仙；雲頂種植（GENP，2291，主板種植組）也是落在“落後大市”評級，目標價8令吉75仙。
（星洲日報／財經

JPO a big hit with bargain shoppers

ONE month into its opening, Johor Premium Outlets (JPO) - a shopping haven joint-venture project between Malaysia’s Genting group and the US’ Simon Property Group - has been attracting strong crowds, especially during weekends.
 This spells good news not just for Johor’s tourism industry, but also for the development of Iskandar Malaysia.

Iskandar Malaysia, which aims to be the most developed region in the southern peninsular, needs something to get the average Malaysian excited about it and JPO is one of few projects that help provide it, analysts say.“Malaysians are shopaholics, so something like this stirs their adrenaline,” one remarked.

JPO, Southeast Asia’s first premium outlet, located in Kulaijaya, is a project earmarked under the country’s Economic Transformation Programme to boost tourism. It is expected to attract some three million visitors in its first year of operation. About 90 per cent of its Phase One’s 70 branded/designer stores, including Coach, Ferragamo, Burberry, Levis and Guess, are already operational. The rest, which include Polo Ralph Lauren, Tommy Hilfiger and Brooks Brothers, are being fitted out, according to a property research report by HwangDBS Vickers Research on January 16.

“Discounts range from 30 per cent to 60 per cent, a tad better than Singapore sales,” its analysts Yee Mei Hui and Quah He Wei said, noting that the “strong” crowds comprised both locals and Singaporeans. “We believe JPO will likely attract shoppers consistently, particularly from residents within the Johor state as well as visitors from Singapore, given its location that already has captive shoppers of 8.3 million (3.1 million population in Johor and 5.2 million population in Singapore) and ample car park space,” Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research said in a recent report.

While JPO’s size may pale in comparison to similar outlets in the US, Japan and Hong Kong, Phase Two of its development could see another 60 outlets come up, bringing the total number of outlets to 130. Future development may also include a 2,000-room hotel and water-theme park. JPO, officially launched by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak on December 11 2011, is a 50:50 joint venture between Genting Plantation Bhd’s Azzon Ltd and Premium Outlets, the outlet division of Simon Property Group.

HLIB Research estimated that JPO could contribute some RM11 million a year in net profit to Genting  Plantations, a mid-sized plantations firm, from this year onwards. From an equity investment standpoint, HwangDBS believes that Genting Plantation, which owns 5,500 acres of land in Kulai, could be JPO’s largest beneficiary. “Every RM5 per square feet increase (from RM10 per square foot assumed) would raise its sum of total parts value by 10 per cent,” it said.  It had a “buy” call on the stock with a target price of RM9.60 a share.

Genting Plantations’ stock, which fell by 2.3 per cent last year, last traded at RM9.28 on Friday, up 13 sen.

Business Times Published: 2012/01/23

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